Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2025
000
FONT13 KNHC 221450
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
1500 UTC WED OCT 22 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GUANAJA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
SAN ANDRES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
PT GALLINAS 34 1 1( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 3(11) 2(13)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 4(15)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13)
GRAND CAYMAN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
GRAND CAYMAN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 20(32) 12(44)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 6(13)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
KINGSTON 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 19(26) 22(48) 10(58)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 7(23)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9)
LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 12(18) 9(27) 4(31)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) 11(20) 8(28) 4(32)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CAPE BEATA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 9(18) 5(23) 4(27)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
CAPE BEATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Atlantic
