Issued at 2100 UTC TUE OCT 21 2025
000
FONT13 KNHC 212035
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC TUE OCT 21 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PT GALLINAS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) 4(13)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 5(10) 5(15)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
MONTEGO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 7(12) 8(20) 10(30)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 5( 7)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
KINGSTON 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) 13(26) 11(37) 6(43)
KINGSTON 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 5(12)
KINGSTON 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 12(17) 6(23) 4(27)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 1 1( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 10(19) 7(26) 4(30)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
CAPE BEATA 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9) 6(15) 4(19) 5(24)
CAPE BEATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 3( 9)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Atlantic
