Issued at 0900 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025
000
FONT13 KNHC 250843
PWSAT3
TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
0900 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14)
NEW PROVIDENCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NEW PROVIDENCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 7(17)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 17(39)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 12(20)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 28(44)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 11(13)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) 33(62)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 23(34)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 23(40)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11)
CIENFUEGOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2)
CIENFUEGOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 6(10) 17(27) 4(31)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 2(12)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 1 2( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 13(21) 37(58) 7(65)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 25(29) 6(35)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 3(17)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 1(16)
MONTEGO BAY 34 2 6( 8) 27(35) 24(59) 29(88) 6(94) X(94)
MONTEGO BAY 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 10(15) 43(58) 11(69) 1(70)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 29(33) 11(44) X(44)
KINGSTON 34 6 49(55) 24(79) 8(87) 7(94) 2(96) X(96)
KINGSTON 50 1 5( 6) 25(31) 16(47) 18(65) 8(73) X(73)
KINGSTON 64 X 2( 2) 11(13) 11(24) 17(41) 8(49) 1(50)
LES CAYES 34 2 4( 6) 3( 9) 3(12) 10(22) 15(37) 3(40)
LES CAYES 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 1(13)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) 4(13) 18(31) 5(36)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 2( 8) 8(16) 1(17)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 10(22)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8)
$$
FORECASTER BERG
NHC Atlantic
