Issued at 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 250842 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Melissa Advisory Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 AM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...MELISSA FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA THROUGH THE WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 75.0W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, eastern Cuba, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Melissa. Watches could be required for portions of eastern Cuba later today. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Melissa was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 75.0 West. Melissa is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow west-northwestward to westward motion is expected today through Sunday night. A turn to the north and northeast is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid intensification is expected to begin soon. Melissa is forecast to become a hurricane today and a major hurricane by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in Jamaica by tonight, with hurricane conditions expected by Sunday or Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible within the watch and warning area in Haiti later today. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 25 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica through Tuesday, with local maxima of 35 inches possible across the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm totals. Potential catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are possible across portions of Jamaica and the southern Dominican Republic, while catastrophic flash flooding is anticipated in southern Haiti. For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, is possible into Tuesday. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Tuesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm totals. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is likely along the coast of Jamaica starting by tonight in areas of onshore winds as tropical storm conditions begin to reach the area. However, there is a risk of a more life-threatening storm surge, especially along the south coast of Jamaica, later in the weekend or early next week. Peak storm surge heights could reach 5 to 10 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Atlantic
