Issued at 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 242054 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 After the previous advisory, the last couple of aircraft fixes from the C-130 indicated that Melissa likely completed a center relocation as a very large burst of deep convection with cloud tops below -90C rotated up-shear of the center. This evolution was also nicely captured on the GOES-19 mesoscale sector, where GLM lightning flashes, which had been parked down-shear earlier in the morning, started to rotate cyclonically along Melissa's eastern flank, indicating convection was finally starting to wrap around the low-level vortex. A GMI microwave pass at 1527 UTC also hinted at a nascent inner core feature on the 37 GHz channel as the convective burst wrapped around the center. Before the Air Force Hurricane Hunters left Melissa, they measured a peak flight level wind of 59 kt, and a pressure down to 997 mb, supporting the 50 kt intensity for the intermediate advisory. However, given the improvement of Melissa's structure since that time, the initial intensity is being raised to 55 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the T3.5/55-kt Dvorak intensity estimate provided by TAFB. Another Air Force Reserve and a NOAA-P3 reconnaissance mission will be in the storm tonight to provide more data on Melissa's intensity and structure. Now that the center is becoming better aligned with its mid-level vortex, it also appears the tropical storm has finally turned more northward, with an estimated motion of 360/2 kt. The synoptic track reasoning remains similar to this morning, with a slow motion expected to continue in the short-term due light steering currents, due to competing mid-level ridges to the southeast and northwest of Melissa. After 24 hours, the mid-level ridge located to the northwest is expected to strengthen to the north of Melissa, and the guidance is coming into better agreement on a very slow westward motion through 72 hours. Beyond that time frame, a strengthening mid-latitude trough expected to move into the Southeastern U.S., providing a path for Melissa to turn northeastward out of the Caribbean Sea into the southwestern Atlantic by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance this cycle has shifted a bit eastward beyond day 3, and is also notably faster than before. However, it should be stressed that there remains a substantial amount of along track spread. On the forecast track, Melissa could potentially be near Jamaica by day 4 and move across Cuba before the end of the forecast period, though the timing of this track remains more uncertain than usual. Compared to yesterday, the UW-CIMSS shear estimates have dropped from 25 kt a day ago to 15 kt currently with mid-level shear also decreasing. This reduction in shear, in combination with the dramatically improved structure of Melissa this afternoon, suggests that the system is ready to take advantage of other favorable environmental conditions (30-31 C sea-surface temperatures, a moistening deep-layer environment). The intensity guidance is sharply higher this afternoon in the short-term, and it appears that Melissa could begin a period of rapid intensification (RI) at any time. The NHC intensity forecast responds to this guidance change by explicitly show RI earlier and continuing over the weekend. The forecast now shows a 135 kt peak in 60 h, and there is a distinct possibility that Melissa could become a Category 5 hurricane during this time period. In fact, the latest 12z Google DeepMind ensemble distribution shows the majority of its members reaching this lofty intensity. After that time period, inner-core structural changes are likely to cause fluctuations in intensity, and land interaction in both Jamaica and Cuba will likely lead to some weakening by the end of the forecast. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the guidance envelope, and closest too the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, a prolonged multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall resulting in potentially catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides is likely to begin late Saturday or Sunday. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge when the center of Melissa nears Jamaica early next week. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. 2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period of time. Immediate preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. 3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall could produce potentially catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the Dominican Republic. 4. Eastern Cuba and Bahamas: Interests in Cuba and the Bahamas should monitor the progress of Melissa since there is an increasing risk of a significant storm storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. The risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides in eastern Cuba are increasing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 16.0N 74.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 16.2N 74.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 16.4N 74.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 16.5N 75.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 16.5N 76.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 16.5N 76.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 16.8N 77.4W 135 KT 155 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 17.9N 77.4W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND IN JAMAICA 120H 29/1800Z 21.5N 74.8W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Atlantic
