Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 241459 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Melissa Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Fri Oct 24 2025 The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance that has been flying through Melissa this morning found the center significantly further to the east-southeast than what was observed last night. How much of this position is related to a real motion, or a center reformation is unclear at this time. The storm remains about the same on satellite imagery this morning, with a large burst of deep convection, primarily along its southeastern flank, with evidence of northwesterly shear still undercutting the outflow. A WSFM microwave pass shows very deep hot towers, but not with that much structure beyond that. In addition, there hasn't been a significant change to Melissa's intensity, with peak 850 mb flight level winds of 49 kt, and these winds support maintaining 40 kt intensity this advisory. As has been stated for the last few days, the lack of persistent steering currents, due to competing mid-level ridges to the southeast and northwest of Melissa, is responsible for the storm's very slow motion. This is likely to continue for the next day or so, and much of the system's motion could be just as influenced by center reformations during this time period. After 24 hours, the mid-level ridge located to the northwest is expected to strengthen to the north of Melissa, and the guidance is coming into better agreement on a very slow westward motion through 72 hours. Beyond that time frame, a strengthening mid-latitude trough expected to move into the Southeastern U.S., should provide an avenue for Melissa to escape the Caribbean Sea to the northeast by the end of the forecast period. The track guidance overall has shifted south over the first few days, but there is still substantial spread in solutions at the end of the forecast period, related to when and how fast Melissa turns to the northeast. The latest NHC track forecast is a little south of the prior one early on, but is shifted a little eastward in 4-5 days, roughly a blend of the latest HCCA and GDMI model aid solutions. On the forecast track, Melissa could potentially be near western Jamaica by day 4 and near or over southeastern Cuba by day 5, though timing still remains more uncertain than usual. The GFS and ECMWF-based SHIPS shear guidance indicates the deep-layer shear is lower than yesterday, between 14-17 kt, but there still appears to be mid-level shear undercutting the outflow layer. Until Melissa also become better aligned vertically, any intensification is likely to be slow to occur over the next 12 h or so. After that, once Melissa's structure improves, environmental conditions still appear favorable for a period of rapid intensification (RI). Every single Google DeepMind member shows the system become a Category 4 hurricane or higher, and the uncertainty is more related on the timing of when RI occurs. After 96 hours, Melissa could weaken some due to the combined effects of land interaction, and an increase in southwesterly vertical wind shear by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast is on the higher end of the model solutions, but more or less in line with the latest GDMI guidance. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Due to Melissa’s slow motion, the risk of a prolonged multi-day period of potentially damaging winds, heavy rainfall resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides, and storm surge continues to increase for Jamaica. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion, since strong winds and flooding rains could begin in Jamaica on Saturday or Sunday. 2. Haiti: Heavy rainfall will result in catastrophic flash flooding and landslides across southwestern Haiti into early next week. Extensive damage to roads and buildings is expected, potentially isolating communities for an extended period of time. This is a life-threatening situation and immediate preparations to protect life and property should be taken. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula of Haiti. 3. Remainder of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall could also produce significant, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern Dominican Republic. Interests in Cuba should monitor the progress of Melissa since the risk of heavy rainfall, damaging winds, and storm surge appears to be increasing. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 15.7N 74.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 15.9N 74.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 16.3N 74.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 16.5N 75.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 26/1200Z 16.6N 76.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 27/0000Z 16.6N 76.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 125 KT 145 MPH 96H 28/1200Z 17.5N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 120H 29/1200Z 20.4N 76.7W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Atlantic
