Issued at 1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025
000
FONT15 KNHC 071435
PWSAT5
TROPICAL STORM JERRY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102025
1500 UTC TUE OCT 07 2025
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20)
BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
BERMUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5)
AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16)
SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4)
SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SAINT JOHN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 5(18) X(18)
SAINT JOHN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4)
SAINT JOHN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) 1(13)
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 29(30) 4(34) X(34)
SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 2(13) X(13)
SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
SABA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 3(25) 1(26)
SABA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
SABA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST EUSTATIUS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 22(23) 3(26) 1(27)
ST EUSTATIUS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9)
ST EUSTATIUS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 2(26) X(26)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 42(45) 2(47) X(47)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22)
ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20(23) 1(24) X(24)
GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 1(13) X(13)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
NHC Atlantic
