Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
805 WTNT35 KNHC 090844 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS JERRY PASSES NEARBY... ...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS TO INVESTIGATE THE STORM THIS MORNING... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.7N 57.7W ABOUT 395 MI...640 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * St. Barthelemy and St. Martin * Sint Maarten * Saba and St. Eustatius * Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 57.7 West. Jerry is moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by late Friday or Saturday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the watch area later today into Friday. RAINFALL: Through Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward and Virgin Islands. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are beginning to reach the Leeward and Windward Islands. These swells will spread westward toward the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight, then toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Atlantic
