Issued at 800 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025
000 WTNT35 KNHC 082354 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 800 PM AST Wed Oct 08 2025 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS JERRY A LITTLE STRONGER... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS AS JERRY PASSES NEARBY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 55.4W ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...105 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * St. Barthelemy and St. Martin * Sint Maarten * Saba and St. Eustatius * Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located by Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 55.4 West. Jerry is moving quickly toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed should begin Thursday night, followed by a northward motion Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry is expected to pass near or to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night. Aircraft dropsonde data indicates that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (105 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane late this week or this weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by Air Force Reserve dropsonde data is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of the northern Leeward Islands within the watch area late Thursday into Friday. RAINFALL: On Thursday into early Friday, 2 to 4 inches of rain with local storm total maxima to 6 inches are expected across the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into Saturday morning due to Jerry. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are expected to reach the Leeward and Windward Islands on Thursday, then spread westward toward the Greater Antilles on Friday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Atlantic
