Issued at 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025
708 WTNT35 KNHC 110239 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 PM AST Fri Oct 10 2025 ...JERRY PULLING AWAY FROM NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA BUT HEAVY RAINS REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR NORTHERN LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 63.9W ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 63.9 West. Jerry is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through Saturday night. A northeastward to eastward motion is forecast on Sunday and Monday. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through the rest of the night, outer rain bands extending south of Jerry may bring an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain across parts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and eastern Puerto Rico. This rainfall is not expected to cause any additional flash flooding concerns. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the Bahamas by Saturday morning. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Hagen
NHC Atlantic
