Issued at 800 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025
000 WTNT35 KNHC 101147 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Intermediate Advisory Number 12A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 800 AM AST Fri Oct 10 2025 ...DESPITE JERRY'S CENTER MOVING NORTH, FLOODING RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.8N 63.3W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * St. Barthelemy and St. Martin * Sint Maarten A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next several hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 63.3 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn toward the north is expected tonight into Saturday, followed by a northward to north-northeastward motion through the rest of the weekend. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will continue passing to the north of the Leeward Islands this morning, then move away from the islands later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km) mainly to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions, mainly in gusts, are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area this morning. RAINFALL: Through today, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated amounts of 6 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm total rainfall graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles today and tonight. Please consult products from your local weather office for more information. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Atlantic
