Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
000 WTNT35 KNHC 100252 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jerry Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 PM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 ...JERRY NOW MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AS IT PASSES BY JUST EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.2N 61.6W ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Barbuda and Anguilla * St. Barthelemy and St. Martin * Sint Maarten * Guadeloupe and the adjacent islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Antigua, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Montserrat * Saba and St. Eustatius A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the northern Leeward Islands and the British and U.S. Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of Jerry. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jerry was located by Air Force reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 61.6 West. Jerry is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with a gradual slowdown on Friday followed by a turn northward Friday night into Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will pass just east of the northern Leeward Islands tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected through tomorrow, but slow strengthening is possible over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Jerry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area and are possible in the watch area tonight and Friday morning. RAINFALL: Through Friday, 4 to 6 inches of rain are expected across the island of Barbuda. Elsewhere across the Leeward and Virgin Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected. This rainfall brings a risk of flash flooding, especially in urban areas and in steep terrain. For portions of Puerto Rico, moisture associated with Jerry combined with local orographic effects may result in up to 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated 6 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Jerry, please see the National Weather Service storm total rainfall graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next couple of days, are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States, including Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Atlantic
