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Tropical Storm Jerry Forecast Discussion Number 9

Virgin Islands News

Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025

000
WTNT45 KNHC 091441
TCDAT5
 
Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102025
1100 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
 
The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters have been investigating 
Jerry this morning, and the radar and flight-level wind data show 
that the storm remains lopsided with nearly all of the strong winds 
and convection on the system's east side.  The center itself has 
been difficult to fix, but the data generally support a position 
that is located south-southeast of the previous track.  The initial 
intensity is held at 55 kt based on a combination of the aircraft 
data and satellite estimates.
 
The initial motion of Jerry is somewhat uncertain given its poor 
low-level structure, but our best guess is west-northwestward at 16 
kt.  A west-northwest to northwest motion should occur today, 
bringing the center of the storm just east of the northern Leeward 
Islands later today and tonight.  Tropical-storm-force winds are 
expected in Barbuda and possible on some of the other islands, 
however, given Jerry's asymmetric structure, the strongest winds 
should pass to the east of the island chain.  A turn to the north is 
expected to occur tomorrow, and that motion should continue through 
most of the weekend as the storm moves in the flow on the western 
side of a subtropical ridge.  Early next week, a faster eastward or 
east-northeastward motion is forecast in the mid-latitude 
westerlies.  All of the models show Jerry passing east of Bermuda in 
3 or 4 days, and given its expected eastward asymmetry, significant 
impacts appear unlikely there. The new track forecast is a little to 
the left of the previous one in the short term, due to the initial 
position adjustment, but ends up near the previous track from 48 to 
120 h.  This prediction is in good agreement with the HCCA and 
Google Deep Mind ensemble mean.
 
Significant strengthening seems unlikely given Jerry's elongated
low-level structure.  However, the shear is expected to let up some
while Jerry remains over warm water and in a moist air mass.
Therefore, slow strengthening is predicted during the next few
days.  Slow weakening seems like a good bet beyond a few days when
Jerry is forecast to be moving over slightly cooler SSTs and into
stronger shear.  The NHC intensity forecast is quite similar to the
previous one and is in best agreement with the HCCA model.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Jerry is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to Barbuda 
later today and tonight, and could bring tropical storm conditions 
to other portions of the northern Leeward Islands by tonight.
 
2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, 
British Virgin Islands, U.S. Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico through 
Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban 
areas and in steep terrain.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 15.9N  59.1W   55 KT  65 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 17.1N  60.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  10/1200Z 19.0N  62.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 36H  11/0000Z 21.7N  63.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  11/1200Z 24.2N  63.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  12/0000Z 26.5N  62.9W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  12/1200Z 28.5N  62.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  13/1200Z 31.3N  59.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  14/1200Z 31.4N  54.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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O’Neal Tries to Distance Herself From Martinez as U.S. Alleges ‘Fraud, Greed and Calculated Corruption’

Almost from the moment opening statements began in the federal corruption trial of former V.I. Management and Budget Director Jenifer O’Neal and former V.I. Police Commissioner Ray Martinez Thursday morning, the two defendants tried to distance themselves from one another.
Martinez’s attorneys, Miguel Oppenheimer and Juan Matos de Juan, reserved their right to respond to federal prosecutors’ opening statements. O’Neal’s attorney, Dale Lionel Smith, said jurors shouldn’t think that his client was part of Martinez and Whitaker’s alleged conspiracy just because the two were on trial together.
“Nothing could be further from the truth,” he said. “You are to give separate consideration to each defendant.”
Smith noted that while both face charges of honest services wire fraud, bribery concerning a federally funded program, and money laundering conspiracy, only Martinez had been charged with two counts of obstructing justice. Smith went on to claim that Whitaker and Martinez never brought O’Neal in on the scheme.
“As you hear them covering the crime, you won’t hear them say, ‘let’s get Jenifer to cover up this crime,’” he said. “Because she didn’t commit any crime.”
After the parties’ opening statements, Martinez’s attorneys made a last-ditch attempt to sever his charges from O’Neal’s, claiming her attorney only shared her theory of defense on the three shared charges during oral arguments.
U.S. District Court Judge Mark Kearney denied the motion hours later as “untimely without good cause and otherwise unfounded given the nature of the references in Defendant O’Neal’s non-evidentiary opening statement suggesting she played no role in conduct possibly involving other persons….”
The day’s opening statements began with Assistant U.S. Attorney Cherrisse Amaro, who gave jurors a road map of the government’s case against the two former members of Gov. Albert Bryan Jr.’s cabinet. Amaro called them classic examples of “public officials who put themselves first — who used their power and positions to enrich themselves.”
Martinez, she told the jury, reaped more than a hundred thousand dollars in kickbacks from David Whitaker, a former V.I. government contractor whose history of cooperating with the federal government is almost as long as his criminal history, before helping Whitaker land a $1.4 million surveillance camera contract financed with American Rescue Plan Act funds. Whitaker pleaded guilty last year to two counts of wire fraud and one count of bribery — charges which stemmed from the same federal investigation into Martinez and O’Neal.
Amaro said O’Neal, who “controlled the flow” of federal dollars through the territory, was as powerful a person.
“And therefore an exceptionally dangerous one, when she chose to abuse that power,” she said.

The bulk of Thursday’s hearing was taken up by prosecutors’ subsequent questioning of Whitaker, who took the stand shortly before noon. Over the next several hours, Alexandre Dempsey, a trial attorney with the US. Justice Department’s Public Integrity Section, questioned Whitaker over his dealings with the defendants and presented jurors with dozens of bank statements, invoices, phone recordings and text conversations.
Whitaker explained that his company, Mon Ethos Pro Support, initially performed work for VIPD without a contract but that payments were routinely late. Whitaker said that he was the first person to suggest offering Martinez gifts — largely, at first, in the form of payments for kitchen equipment for Martinez’s then-nascent restaurant, Don Felito’s Cookshop on St. Thomas. At one point, Dempsey asked Whitaker why he made the initial offer.
“So that he would stop working on his restaurant during work hours and pay my invoices,” Whitaker said.
Whitaker testified that he eventually became concerned about the arrangement “because I was providing the police commissioner … money for his restaurant and that it would be seen as bribery.” Whitaker later said he started cooperating with federal investigators after they approached him about a separate crime in September 2023.
On Thursday, Whitaker outlined tens of thousands of dollars in payments to Martinez, which included covering tuition for Martinez’s kids’ private school, rent, and restaurant construction costs. The two took three trips to Boston — flying first-class — and stayed in a lavish two-bedroom suite at the Encore Boston Harbor, where they spent thousands on food and entertainment. Though Whitaker testified that he paid for those trips, many of the related charges first appeared on credit card statements for O’Neal’s son, Jafari Daniel, whom Whitaker said worked for Mon Ethos.
Whitaker said he reimbursed Daniel, who benefited “from the miles.”
Dempsey later introduced recordings of phone conversations during which Whitaker and Martinez allegedly discussed inflating Mon Ethos invoices to cover Martinez’s restaurant and tuition expenses.
Whitaker’s testimony came after prosecutors called V.I. Property and Procurement Commissioner Lisa Alejandro to testify. Alejandro outlined the territory’s procurement processes and laws and maintained that if she had known a government official was being paid by a prospective contractor, she never would have authorized the contract, “because it’s against all federal and local laws.”
“It’s a crime,” she said.

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