Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025
469 WTNT45 KNHC 090847 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 AM AST Thu Oct 09 2025 Jerry still has the appearance of a sheared tropical storm. Proxy-visible satellite images show the low-level center lies near the northwestern edge of the convective cloud mass. Deep convection is mostly confined to the eastern and southeastern portions of the circulation. Based on the prior aircraft data and a recent T3.5/55 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to investigate Jerry this morning. The storm is moving west-northwestward (290/17 kt), but is expected to turn toward the northwest later today as Jerry moves around the southwestern extent of a subtropical ridge. The center of Jerry should pass just to the northeast of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight. Based on the earlier aircraft fixes and the latest track guidance, the updated NHC forecast brings Jerry marginally closer to the northern Leeward Islands during this time. However, the risk of sustained tropical-storm-force winds impacting these islands remains low since the strongest winds are occurring to the east of the center, with much weaker winds found on the west side of the storm. By Friday night, Jerry should turn northward within the flow between the central Atlantic subtropical ridge and an upper-level trough over the western Atlantic. This motion is forecast through the weekend, followed by a sharp turn toward the east as the storm becomes caught in mid-latitude westerly flow. The updated NHC forecast track still keeps Jerry well to the southeast of Bermuda at 72-96 h, and no notable changes were made to the latter half of the track forecast. Only modest strengthening is forecast during the next 12-24 h given the current sheared structure of Jerry. While the storm remains in a moderate to strong shear environment, there are signs that the northwesterly shear could lessen on Friday and Saturday, and the NHC forecast shows Jerry becoming a hurricane during that time. Overall, there remains a significant amount of spread and a lack of consistency in the long-range intensity guidance for Jerry. While the HAFS hurricane models now show significant strengthening to major hurricane intensity, other guidance like the GFS and Google DeepMind show little net intensity change during the next several days. The NHC intensity forecast remains in between the extreme solutions, showing gradual strengthening as Jerry moves northward away from the Leeward Islands, followed by gradual weakening later in the period as Jerry encounters stronger shear and cooler waters. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands later today and tonight. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands through Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in urban areas and in steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 15.7N 57.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 17.0N 59.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 18.8N 61.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 21.2N 62.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 23.8N 63.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 11/1800Z 26.2N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 28.4N 62.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 31.7N 60.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 31.8N 54.7W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Atlantic
