Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025
518 WTNT45 KNHC 081452 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025 Jerry is a sheared tropical cyclone this morning, with the low-level center racing out ahead of the associated deep convection. Despite this structure, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak 700-mb wind of 56 kt, and Tail-Doppler radar data showed winds of around 75 kt at 500 meters above the surface. Even using a conservative reduction factor for this data of 70 percent yields surface winds of about 50 kt. Recent ASCAT data also confirm that the initial intensity is about 50 kt. Jerry remains on a quick west-northwestward trajectory (285/20 kt), steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. The ridge only extends as far west as the longitude of the Lesser Antilles, and the weakness to the west is expected to cause Jerry to turn northwestward by 36 hours, with the center potentially passing only 60-70 n mi northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. The NHC track forecast is along the western side of the guidance envelope during the first 36 hours of the forecast. After 36 hours, the track guidance has trended a bit to the east, showing a sharper recurvature over the central Atlantic resulting from a large extratropical cyclone that is expected to develop near the U.S. east coast over the weekend. Jerry is moving directly against the analyzed shear vector, and vertical model soundings suggest this orientation may not change any time soon. It's becoming more likely that Jerry may remain a sheared tropical storm for the next few days, and the intensity guidance has responded accordingly. The updated NHC forecast still shows the possibility of gradual strengthening through 60-72 hours, however the peak has been lowered by about 10 kt. It's worth noting that only two of the reliable models, the HWRF and COAMPS-TC, are still higher than the official forecast, and the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids suggest additional decreases in the forecast intensity could be possible in future advisories. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Jerry could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Thursday night. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands, British Virgin Islands, and U.S. Virgin Islands from Thursday into Saturday morning, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of steep terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/1500Z 13.9N 52.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 09/0000Z 14.7N 55.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/1200Z 16.1N 58.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/0000Z 17.9N 60.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1200Z 20.0N 61.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 11/0000Z 22.5N 62.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 11/1200Z 25.1N 62.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 12/1200Z 29.6N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 13/1200Z 32.7N 56.9W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
NHC Atlantic
