Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025
000 WTNT45 KNHC 080844 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 500 AM AST Wed Oct 08 2025 Jerry remains poorly organized this morning. Proxy-visible satellite images indicate the low-level center of the storm is still partially exposed and elongated, with deep convection displaced well to the south and east of the center. With no signs of improved convective organization, the initial intensity of Jerry is held at 45 kt, which is supported by a 3.0/45 kt Dvorak classification from TAFB and earlier scatterometer data. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Jerry today. The storm is racing west-northwestward (285/20 kt) to the south of a strong low-level ridge extending across the central Atlantic. A continued west-northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. This should bring the center of the system near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday into Friday. This part of the NHC track forecast remains near the center of the guidance envelope, between the simple and corrected consensus aids. Jerry is forecast to turn northward by Friday as a deep-layer trough over the western Atlantic weakens the ridge to the north of the system. Then, Jerry should accelerate northeastward within the flow ahead of this trough through early next week. Overall, no noteworthy track changes were made with this update. Only modest near-term strengthening is expected due to the sheared structure of Jerry and its fast forward motion. As the storm begins to slow down, Jerry should be able to become more vertically aligned and establish an inner core over very warm waters within generally favorable environmental conditions. The NHC intensity forecast shows a slower rate of strengthening through 24 h, but Jerry is still forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday. Additional strengthening is anticipated thereafter, and the NHC prediction trends on the higher side of the intensity guidance later in the forecast period, closer to HCCA and some of the regional hurricane models. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for many of the northern Leeward Islands. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the latest updates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Jerry is forecast to strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches have been issued. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on Thursday into early Friday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 13.3N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 14.2N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 15.7N 56.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 17.3N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 18.9N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 10/1800Z 21.1N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 23.6N 63.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 28.3N 63.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 13/0600Z 32.5N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Atlantic
