Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025
000 WTNT45 KNHC 080234 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Jerry Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102025 1100 PM AST Tue Oct 07 2025 Satellite imagery and scatterometer data indicate that Jerry is somewhat disorganized this evening. Satellite imagery has been showing an exposed swirl of low-level clouds to the northwest and west of the convective mass, with scatterometer data suggesting this was the western end of an elongated surface circulation. The maximum scatterometer winds were in the 40-45 kt range, so the initial intensity remains 45 kt. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Jerry tomorrow. The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/20 kt. Jerry is currently on the south side of a strong low-level ridge, and this features should steer the storm west-northwestward for the next couple of days with some decrease in forward speed. This motion should take the core of Jerry near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands late Thursday and Friday. This part of the forecast track is close to the various consensus models. However, the global model forecasts lie to the right of the consensus models, while the HAFS/HWRF models and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean are to the left of them. After the cyclone passes the Leeward Islands, it is expected to turn northward and eventually northeastward due to the development of a deep-layer trough over the eastern United States and the western Atlantic. Overall, the new forecast track is nudged just a little to the left of the previous track through 96 h. The latest satellite imagery and model analyses suggest that the environment Jerry is in is not quite as conducive for strengthening as thought earlier, with the cyclone likely to remain in moderate westerly shear for the next two to three days. In addition, the current structure favors a slower development rate. The latest intensity guidance has responded to these developments by being less bullish on developing the storm. While the new intensity forecast calls for the same 85 kt peak intensity as the previous forecast, it shows a slower rate of development, and the new forecast lies above the intensity consensus models. Based on the forecast and the uncertainties, Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for portions of the northern Leeward Islands. Interests elsewhere in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico should monitor the progress of Jerry. Key Messages: 1. Jerry is forecast to strengthen and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches have been issued. 2. Heavy rainfall will impact portions of the Leeward Islands on Thursday, which could result in flash flooding, particularly in areas of higher terrain. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 12.8N 48.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 13.6N 51.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 14.9N 55.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 16.5N 58.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 18.1N 60.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 19.8N 62.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 22.1N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 26.7N 63.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 31.7N 60.1W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Atlantic
