Issued at 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
000 WTNT34 KNHC 300244 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025 ...IMELDA MOVING AWAY FROM THE BAHAMAS... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.4N 77.2W ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 77.2 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward the east-northeast at a faster forward speed on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system should move away from the northwestern Bahamas tonight and away from the southeastern United States on Tuesday. The center should approach Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane Tuesday or Tuesday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon. Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible over portions of the extreme northwestern Bahamas during the next few hours. RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local maxima of 4 inches are expected through tonight across coastal sections of southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban flooding. As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday. STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles... Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina...1 to 2 ft SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to much of the U.S. east coast. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Atlantic
