Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
000 WTNT34 KNHC 292048 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Imelda Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 500 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025 ...IMELDA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW MORNING... ...HURRICANE WATCH NOW IN EFFECT FOR ISLAND OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.7N 77.3W ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM ESE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda. The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas except for Grand Bahama and Great Abaco Island. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Extreme Northwestern Bahamas, including Great Abaco, Grand Bahama Island and the surrounding keys. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area in this for the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Imelda was located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 77.3 West. Imelda is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a general northward motion is expected to continue tonight. On Tuesday, Imelda is expected to turn sharply to the east-northeast and accelerate. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to start moving away from the northwestern Bahamas this afternoon and then turn east-northeastward, moving away from the southeastern U.S. but approaching the island of Bermuda on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecasted over the next several days, and Imelda is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb (29.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Imelda can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area by Wednesday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the extreme northwestern Bahamas and should continue through tonight. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Imelda is expected to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 3 inches across the northwest Bahamas through tonight. This rainfall may produce flash and urban flooding. Storm total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches with local maxima of 4 inches are expected through tonight across northeast Florida, coastal South Carolina, and coastal sections of southeast North Carolina. This rainfall could result in isolated flash and urban flooding. As Imelda passes near Bermuda, 2 to 4 inches – 50 to 100 mm – of rainfall is expected from Wednesday into Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding associated with Tropical Storm Imelda, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible in areas of onshore winds over the Southeastern U.S. coastline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the surge occurs over the next several high tide cycles... Volusia/Brevard County Line, Florida to the South Santee River, South Carolina...1 to 2 ft SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Storm Imelda and Hurricane Humberto are affecting the Bahamas and are currently spreading to much of the east coast of the U.S.. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ripCurrents NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Atlantic
