Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025
000 WTNT42 KNHC 190239 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 18 2025 Gabrielle has managed to re-develop deep convection near its low-level center this evening. Thunderstorms in the northeast quadrant formed early in the afternoon and have continued into the evening, producing cloud top temperatures colder than -80 degrees C. A scatterometer pass from 0012 UTC measured the eastern portion of the circulation with wind speeds close to 40 kt. However, these data did not capture the radius of maximum wind, which is assumed to have stronger winds. Therefore, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. Global models suggest environmental conditions will be unfavorable for the next day or so while Gabrielle contends with strong-to-moderate vertical wind shear and dry air intrusions. By this weekend, both of these impediments should subside and allow the storm to gradually strengthen. Once again, the intensity aids have risen this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast has been nudged upward and now lies in the middle of the guidance envelope with a peak of 90 kt by day 4. Gabrielle is moving west-northwestward at 10 kt. The storm should slowly turn toward the northwest over the next few days around the periphery of a subtropical ridge centered over the central Atlantic. Late this weekend and into early next week, the storm is expected to turn toward the north and northeast in the flow between the ridge and a frontal system approaching from the west. There are still some speed differences among the numerical models, however the overall track guidance spread is not as significant this cycle. The latest official track forecast is slightly east of the previous prediction and lies between the consensus aids to the west and Google DeepMind to the east. Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 21.2N 53.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 22.0N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 23.2N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 24.5N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 26.1N 59.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 22/0000Z 29.9N 61.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 23/0000Z 34.6N 58.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 24/0000Z 40.1N 48.6W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Bucci
NHC Atlantic
