Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 20 2025
000 WTNT42 KNHC 201446 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 20 2025 Gabrielle has become a little better organized this morning, with increased curved banding over the eastern semicircle and a 1009Z SSM/IS overpass suggesting a mid-level eye was forming. However, this feature appeared to be to the northeast of the low-level center, suggesting that Gabrielle is tilted vertically due to southwesterly shear. Satellite intensity estimates have increased a bit and are now in the 45-55 kt range. Based on this, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft are currently enroute to investigate Gabrielle. The initial motion is 320/11 kt. During the next 48-60 h, Gabrielle is expected to recurve to the north and northeast between the subtropical ridge to the east and a mid-latitude trough over the southeastern United States and adjacent parts of the Atlantic. The track guidance remains tightly clustered during this time, and the main change since the last advisory is that the guidance is a little slower in forward speed. Thus, this part of the new forecast track is similar to, but a little slower than, the previous forecast. The reliable guidance models and the official forecast continue to keep Gabrielle well to the east of Bermuda during recurvature. After 60 h, Gabrielle should move east-northeastward to eastward as it becomes embedded in zonal westerly flow. This part of the track guidance has shifted a little south from the previous advisory and also shows a slower forward speed. The new official forecast is therefore a little south of and a little slower than the previous forecast. Gabrielle is expected to be in a light-to-moderate shear environment for the next 60-72 h, and steady strengthening is expected during this time. One change in the intensity guidance since the last advisory is that the regional hurricane models are less aggressive in strengthening the storm, and so the forecast peak intensity of 90 kt is now near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope. After peak intensity, it currently appears that Gabrielle's extratropical transition will not occur until after the forecast period. So, the intensity forecast shows steady weakening due to increasing westerly shear and decreasing sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. The new intensity forecast has some minor adjustments from the previous forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday and pass east of Bermuda Sunday night and Monday. Interests on Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle's forecasts since some wind and rainfall impacts are still possible. 2. Swells generated by Gabrielle are beginning to reach Bermuda and will build through the weekend. These swells are also expected to reach the coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, along with the coast of Atlantic Canada, late this weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/1500Z 25.0N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 21/0000Z 26.2N 60.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 21/1200Z 27.8N 61.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 22/0000Z 29.4N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 22/1200Z 31.1N 61.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 23/0000Z 32.8N 60.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 23/1200Z 34.5N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 24/1200Z 37.0N 48.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 25/1200Z 38.5N 36.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Atlantic
