Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025
554 WTNT42 KNHC 290232 TCDAT2 Tropical Depression Two Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022025 1000 PM CDT Sat Jun 28 2025 Tropical Depression Two is poorly organized at this time. During the latter part of the Hurricane Hunter Mission this afternoon, the aircraft was unable to close off the circulation. Since that time, conventional satellite imagery and 2235 UTC SSM/IS overpass show little change in organization, although surface observations suggest the circulation is still closed. The initial intensity is held at 25 kt in agreement with current satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/7. The subtropical ridge to the east and northeast of the cyclone should steer the system generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days, bringing the center to the eastern coast of Mexico near the 24 h point. There is little change in either the track guidance or the track forecast since the last advisory. It should be noted that some erratic motion could occur as the circulation interacts with the coast of Mexico. The cyclone is experiencing 20-25 kt of southwesterly vertical shear. However, the upper-level winds are divergent, which should allow the system to produce significant convection. It is expected that this convection will lead to a little strengthening despite the shear, and based on this the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm near the time of landfall. After landfall, the cyclone is expected to rapidly weaken over eastern Mexico. Given the forecast for the depression to become a tropical storm before landfall, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of their eastern Gulf coastline of Mexico. Key Messages: 1. Tropical storm conditions are expected on Sunday for portions of the Gulf coast of Mexico where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. Tropical Depression Two will produce heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern Mexico. Life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 19.7N 95.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 20.3N 96.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 21.3N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 22.1N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Atlantic
