Issued at 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025
000 WTNT42 KNHC 261442 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 300 PM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025 Gabrielle is a storm-force extratropical cyclone with frontal boundaries that extend east-northeastward and southwestward from the cyclone. The center continues moving away from the Azores, and winds have dropped below gale-force across the islands. Recent ASCAT passes missed the center, but winds up to 43 kt were measured by the instrument well away from the center in the southeast quadrant. Global models show 10-meter winds up to 55 kt in their fields at the current time, so the initial intensity will be held at 55 kt. Some intensification is possible this evening, and the 06Z GFS model indicates a sting jet could briefly cause winds up to 70-75 kt in the western semicircle in about 6 h from now. The NHC forecast brings Gabrielle to 60 kt in 12 h, but doesn't necessarily account for brief stronger winds that could occur between the current time and the 12 h point. Global models are in good agreement on steady weakening after hour 12, and the NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the GFS and ECMWF. It's possible that gale force winds near 35 kt, with higher gusts, could affect portions of the west coast of Portugal around early Sunday. The current motion is quickly east-northeastward, or 065/27 kt. A turn toward the east along with a decrease in forward speed is expected in 12-24 h. After that, the cyclone is expected to turn southeastward as it approaches the coast of Portugal. This should be followed by an even slower southeastward to southward motion while Gabrielle decays and eventually dissipates near southern Portugal and northern Morocco. The forecast track has been shifted slightly to the northeast, or left, of the previous NHC track, closer to the latest simple and corrected consensus models. This is the final advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Gabrielle. Future information on marine impacts can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/raw/fq/fqnt50.lfpw..txt. Future information on potential land-based impacts in Portugal can be found in products issued by the Portugal Meteorological Institute at https://www.ipma.pt/en/index.html KEY MESSAGES: 1. Winds across the Azores will continue to subside this afternoon. 2. Any flooding caused by Gabrielle across the high terrain of the central Azores should subside this afternoon. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 40.0N 22.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 27/0000Z 40.8N 18.6W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 27/1200Z 41.0N 13.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 28/0000Z 40.1N 10.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 28/1200Z 38.5N 8.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 29/0000Z 36.9N 7.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 29/1200Z 35.6N 7.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
NHC Atlantic
