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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Forecast Discussion Number 36

Virgin Islands News

Issued at 900 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025

000
WTNT42 KNHC 252034
TCDAT2
 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number  36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL072025
900 PM GMT Thu Sep 25 2025
 
Gabrielle has quickly lost tropical characteristics today in a 
highly sheared environment. Dry air infiltrating the circulation has 
left the low-level center partially exposed, and the overall cloud 
pattern has become more linear ahead of an approaching baroclinic 
system. Since Gabrielle no longer has organized deep convection and 
is beginning to interact with fronts, it is best designated as a 
post-tropical cyclone. The initial intensity is set at 60 kt based 
on earlier ASCAT data and the latest GFS and ECMWF wind fields. 
Weather radar data from Flores Island in the Azores indicate showers 
are spreading across the northwestern islands as conditions begin 
to deteriorate.

The cyclone continues moving quickly eastward (080/26 kt) within 
strong westerly mid-latitude flow. The center of Gabrielle will pass 
quickly near or over the Azores later tonight and early Friday. 
Gabrielle is forecast to gradually decelerate over the next few 
days while eventually turning southeastward as a ridge builds to 
the west over the eastern Atlantic. As a result, the post-tropical 
cyclone should pass near or over the coast of Portugal later this 
weekend. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast 
with this update.

The global models continue to show some increase in Gabrielle's peak 
winds tonight as the cyclone interacts with an approaching 
baroclinic system and completes extratropical transition. The NHC 
intensity forecast favors this solution and shows Gabrielle as a 
65-kt post-tropical cyclone moving through the Azores early Friday. 
Thereafter, steady weakening is forecast as the low becomes 
vertically stacked and fills over the far eastern Atlantic. The 
global models are in good agreement on this solution.  

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the 
Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a 
post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended.
 
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1.  Gabrielle is expected to bring hurricane conditions to the
islands of the Azores later tonight and early Friday. Significant
hurricane-force wind gusts are likely across portions of the Azores
even after the center passes.
 
2.  A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
 
3.  Heavy rainfall from Gabrielle could produce flash flooding
across the terrain of the central Azores tonight through Friday
morning.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  25/2100Z 37.1N  31.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  26/0600Z 38.3N  27.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  26/1800Z 39.7N  21.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  27/0600Z 40.3N  16.7W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  27/1800Z 40.0N  12.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 60H  28/0600Z 38.7N  10.1W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  28/1800Z 36.9N   8.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  29/1800Z 35.5N   7.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  30/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

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USVI’s Smith and Simpson Make Their Mark in Tokyo World Athletics Championships

Michelle Smith, 19, and Omar Simpson, 24, made their World Athletics Championships debut among a sea of over 2,000 competitors at Japan National Stadium in Tokyo, Sept. 13-21.

Smith and Simpson represented the USVI in the 400-meter hurdles and 200-meter dash, respectively. Their journey to Tokyo tells a story of individual determination, personal faith, and national pride that extends far beyond their finishing times.

Smith’s road to Tokyo ran through Athens, Georgia, where she trains under coach Carly Smith-Gilbert at the University of Georgia. She followed an individualized training plan throughout the year, working alone rather than with the team to prepare for the world’s biggest stage.

“I’ve just been training by myself. I haven’t gotten much of a break, but I don’t really mind,” Smith explained, glancing up from an assignment. The sophomore biology major is currently in the throes of being both a student and world-class athlete, racing deadlines while conducting post-competition interviews.

Meanwhile, Simpson prepared for Tokyo with D4 Fire Training Group near Atlanta. Without the built-in structure and competition of college athletics, the postgraduate athlete had to create his own environment for elite-level preparation.

The athletes made time to explore Japan’s culture during their stay, picking up trinkets for friends while shopping in different cities. But when race day arrived, the magnitude of the moment hit home.

“Everyone decides to show up for the evening races, so the stadium was packed,” Simpson said. “I kept thinking about what I was going to do when they put the camera on me. It finally got to me, and I started raising my hands up … and the crowd really got louder!” he laughed.

The atmosphere proved unlike anything they had experienced in their young careers.

“At any meet, you expect the crowd to be quiet when a race is starting. But you could hear a pin drop in there, and it was always so loud that the silence was even more shocking than the noise,” Simpson added.

Competition at the World Championships proved as fierce as expected. Smith lined up in the 400-meter hurdles, where 41 competitors across eight heats battled for the top 24 qualifying times to reach the semifinals. She executed her race plan well, posting the fastest reaction time in her heat at .127 seconds, but her 56.00 time left her just seven-tenths of a second short of advancing. She faced defending champion Femke Bol of the Netherlands, who took the top spot in their heat and in the final.

Simpson found himself in the fifth heat of the 200 meters alongside Jamaica’s Bryan Levell, who would go on to finish third in the final. His 21.58 time landed him 49th overall in a stacked field that included now four-time 200-meter world champion Noah Lyles (USA), Kenneth Bednarek (USA), Levell, and Letsile Tebogo (BOT) — all of whom ran sub-20 seconds in the final. The competition was so tight that several athletes posted identical times, with the slowest qualifying mark being 20.43 seconds.

Despite not advancing to the later rounds, both athletes found deeper meaning in their World Championships experience. Their motivations reveal the personal drives that brought them to Tokyo’s biggest stage.

“I run for my coach, my family, the fans, and the territory,” Smith said. “And I draw strength from my self-belief, my faith, and words of encouragement from my coach and the people I love.”

For Simpson, who only began running during his junior year of high school, the journey carries a different weight.

“I run for myself to prove that I am the athlete said I couldn’t be,” he explained.

Faith plays a central role in Simpson’s approach to competition. “I recently got baptized, and I found strength through Jesus Christ. He wouldn’t put me in a situation I couldn’t handle, so I give it to Him and handle the rest.”

This Tokyo experience marked both a new height of competition and a foundation for future success. For Smith and Simpson, representing the U.S. Virgin Islands on the world’s biggest track and field stage was just the beginning of what they hope will be many more opportunities to carry their territory’s flag with pride. The national teammates expressed gratitude for sharing this milestone experience together and already have their sights set on the next World Athletics Championships in Beijing in 2027.

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