Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025
000
FONT13 KNHC 252056
PWSAT3
HURRICANE MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132025
2100 UTC SAT OCT 25 2025
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE
OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7)
NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10)
ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 2(14)
ANDROS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
ANDROS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 5(33)
GREAT EXUMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 3(15)
GREAT EXUMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8)
SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 27(28) 11(39)
SAN SALVADOR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 6(17)
SAN SALVADOR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11)
MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 51(54) 14(68)
MAYAGUANA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 11(38)
MAYAGUANA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 7(20)
GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 36(37) 15(52)
GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 8(21)
GRAND TURK 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 4(10)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 3( 8) X( 8)
CAMAGUEY 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 11(15) 12(27) X(27)
CAMAGUEY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9)
CAMAGUEY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
GUANTANAMO BAY 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) 27(35) 31(66) 2(68)
GUANTANAMO BAY 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 24(32) 1(33)
GUANTANAMO BAY 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 13(17) X(17)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 6(12) 1(13) X(13)
MONTEGO BAY 34 4 20(24) 27(51) 18(69) 26(95) 1(96) X(96)
MONTEGO BAY 50 1 2( 3) 6( 9) 13(22) 45(67) 4(71) X(71)
MONTEGO BAY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 38(44) 3(47) X(47)
KINGSTON 34 58 27(85) 7(92) 2(94) 4(98) X(98) X(98)
KINGSTON 50 3 17(20) 13(33) 7(40) 32(72) 2(74) X(74)
KINGSTON 64 1 5( 6) 7(13) 5(18) 30(48) 3(51) X(51)
LES CAYES 34 4 3( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 14(25) 13(38) X(38)
LES CAYES 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) X(10)
LES CAYES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 10(17) 19(36) 1(37)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8)
PORT-AU-PRINCE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3)
CAPE BEATA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 3( 6) 10(16) 1(17)
PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 5(27)
PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6)
PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2)
SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9)
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Atlantic
