Issued at 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 291740 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 33A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND FOR THE AFTERNOON IN EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.1N 75.3W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSE OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas * Southeastern and Central Bahamas * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Cuba should remain sheltered. In the Bahamas, residents should remain sheltered. In Bermuda, preparations should be underway and be completed before anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located by Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 75.3 West. Melissa is moving toward the northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). An accelerating northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move across the southeastern or central Bahamas this afternoon and evening, and pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today into tomorrow with little change in strength thereafter. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from aircraft dropsonde data is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area in Cuba but expected to begin subsiding this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Hurricane conditions are now expected on Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night with Tropical storm conditions expected earlier on Thursday. RAINFALL: For eastern Cuba, heavy rains will continue this morning, tapering off this afternoon. Storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches with local amounts to 25 inches over mountainous terrain is expected. This will cause life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches are expected today, which will result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday or Thursday night. Rainfall has diminished across Jamaica. However, additional scattered showers are possible with additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches. This will bring storm total amounts to 12 to 24 inches, with isolated areas of 30 inches possible over mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides will continue today and into tonight. Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 4 to 6 inches are expected today, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Storm surge of 4 to 7 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas today, and minor coastal flooding is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of eastern Cuba and minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, and now affecting the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and will spread toward Bermuda later this week, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Atlantic
