Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
481 WTNT33 KNHC 290851 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...MELISSA BRINGING DAMAGING WINDS, FLOODING RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE AS IT MOVES OVER EASTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.3N 76.1W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas * Southeastern and Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Cuba should remain sheltered. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 76.1 West. Melissa is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to cross eastern Cuba this morning, move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later today, and pass near or to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa is expected to remain a powerful hurricane when it moves across the Bahamas later today and passes near Bermuda on Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). Leeward Point Field in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, recently reported a sustained wind of 59 mph (94 km/h) and a gust of 75 mph (120 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Damaging winds are subsiding across Jamaica, but residents are advised to remain in a safe shelter until sunrise. Hurricane conditions are occurring within the warning area in Cuba. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 3 to 6 inches across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24 inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides will continue today and into tonight. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches are expected through today with local amounts to 25 inches expected over mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeastern Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches are expected today, which will result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda on Thursday or Thursday night. Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches are expected today, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba this morning. Peak storm surge heights could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa made landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of eastern Cuba. Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas today, and 2 to 4 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells are beginning to reach the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands, and will spread toward Bermuda later this week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Atlantic
