Issued at 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 290551 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 200 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 ...MELISSA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL SOON ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.7N 76.4W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas * Southeastern and Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Cuba should seek safe shelter immediately. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 76.4 West. Melissa is moving toward the northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over eastern Cuba through this morning, move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later today, and approach Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa is expected to remain a powerful hurricane when it moves across Cuba and the Bahamas and passes near Bermuda. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). Leeward Point Field in Guantanamo Bay, Cuba, recently reported a sustained wind of 38 mph (61 km/h) and a gust of 69 mph (111 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure based on Air Force Hurricane Hunter dropsonde data is 952 mb (28.12 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Damaging winds are expected to gradually subside across Jamaica, but residents are advised to remain in a safe shelter until sunrise. Hurricane conditions are spreading across the warning area in Cuba and will continue through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti through today. Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas today. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 4 to 8 inches across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24 inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides will continue through this morning. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches are expected through today, with local amounts to 25 inches expected over mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches are expected through today, which will result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night. Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches are expected through today, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba early today. Peak storm surge heights could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of eastern Cuba. Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas today, and 2 to 4 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands today. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands early this morning, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Atlantic
