Issued at 1100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 290255 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...MELISSA RE-STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES EASTERN CUBA... ...EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL THERE AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.3N 76.6W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Jamaica has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a Tropical Storm Warning. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas * Southeastern and Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Haiti * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba, residents should seek safe shelter immediately. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 19.3 North, longitude 76.6 West. Melissa is moving toward the northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over eastern Cuba later tonight and early Wednesday morning, move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday, and approach Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa is expected to remain a powerful hurricane when it moves across Cuba, the Bahamas, and near Bermuda. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb (28.06 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: The damaging winds are expected to gradually subside across Jamaica, but it is advised to remain in a safe shelter until sunrise. Hurricane conditions are expected in the warning area in Cuba through Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 4 to 8 inches across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24 inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides will continue through Tuesday night. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches are expected through Wednesday, with local amounts to 25 inches expected over mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches are expected through Wednesday, which will result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night. Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches are expected through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba through early Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of eastern Cuba. Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa will continue to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next day or so, causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands overnight, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
NHC Atlantic
