Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 282051 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...CENTER OF MELISSA EMERGING FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF WESTERN JAMAICA... ...DAMAGING WINDS. CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING, AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUES IN JAMAICA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.5N 77.7W ABOUT 15 MI...20 KM E OF MONTEGO BAY JAMAICA ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...921 MB...27.20 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Bermuda has issued a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, Holguin, and Las Tunas * Southeastern and Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban province of Camaguey * Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Residents in Jamaica should remain in a safe shelter. In the warning area in Cuba, residents should seek safe shelter. In the Bahamas, preparations to protect life and property should be completed later tonight. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 77.7 West. Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected this evening, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa will move away from western Jamaica this evening. After that, the center is expected to move over southeastern Cuba later tonight and early Wednesday morning, move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday, and approach Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Melissa is expected to reach southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it could still be a major hurricane when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be investigating Melissa this evening. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 921 mb (27.20 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Damaging winds will continue across portions of Jamaica through this evening, especially in mountainous areas. Remain in a safe shelter in Jamaica through tonight. Tropical storm conditions are spreading across eastern Cuba, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring an additional 6 to 12 inches across Jamaica, where storm total amounts will be between 12 to 24 inches. Isolated areas near 30 inches will be possible over mountainous terrain. Ongoing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides will continue through Tuesday night. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches is expected through Wednesday, with local amounts to 25 inches expected over mountainous terrain. This will cause life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, storm total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected through Wednesday, which will result in areas of flash flooding. For the Turks and Caicos, rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected. Heavy rain may begin to affect Bermuda Thursday night. Over southern Hispaniola, additional rainfall of 2 to 6 inches is expected through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground level. Storm surge flooding on the southern coast of Jamaica should subside tonight. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 8 to 12 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Minor coastal flooding is possible in bays and inlets along the north coast of eastern Cuba. Storm surge of 5 to 8 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, and 2 to 4 ft above normally dry ground in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast of Haiti. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next day or two, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Atlantic
