Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 280855 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 ...CONDITIONS DETERIORATING ON JAMAICA AS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 MELISSA SLOWLY APPROACHES... ...CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N 78.3W ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM WSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...901 MB...26.61 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin * Southeastern and Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban province of Las Tunas * Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion in Cuba. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. Watches could be required later today or tonight. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 78.3 West. Melissa is moving toward the north-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica today, across southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica later today. However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston, Jamaica, recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 58 mph (93 km/h). Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay, Jamaica, recently reported a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a gust of 56 mph (91 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 901 mb (26.61 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and catastrophic hurricane-force winds are expected to begin this morning. Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba today, with hurricane conditions expected in the hurricane warning area starting tonight into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti later today and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with local amounts to 25 inches, is expected into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos, rain is expected to develop later today and continue into Wednesday. Total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected to result in areas of flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica today. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 2 to 4 feet of storm surge above ground level. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late today or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days, likely causing life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. These swells will reach the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Atlantic
