Issued at 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
701 WTNT33 KNHC 272352 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 26A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 800 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...MELISSA EXPECTED TO BRING CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE TO JAMAICA LATER TONIGHT AND ON TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.6N 78.6W ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...909 MB...26.85 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin * Southeastern and Central Bahamas A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban province of Las Tunas * Turks and Caicos Islands A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion in Cuba. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 78.6 West. Melissa is moving slowly toward the northwest near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow turn toward the north is expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northeast at a slightly faster forward speed on Tuesday. A northeastward motion with a faster forward speed is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica by early Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern or central Bahamas on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 175 mph (280 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica. However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The minimum central pressure estimated by aircraft dropsonde data is 909 mb (26.85 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions are expected to begin late tonight and continue into Tuesday. Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the hurricane warning area starting Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are expected in the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday with hurricane conditions also possible on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 6 to 12 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 10 to 20 inches, with local amounts to 25 inches, is expected by Monday into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 5 to 10 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica late tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. On the northwest coast of Jamaica, near Montego Bay, there is the possibility of 1 to 3 feet of storm surge above ground level. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Atlantic
