Issued at 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 271447 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 ...CATEGORY 5 MELISSA EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT... ...CATASTROPHIC AND LIFE-THREATENING WINDS, FLOODING, AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 78.2W ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SW OF GUANTANAMO CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH...270 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...908 MB...26.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southeastern and central Bahamas * Turks and Caicos Islands A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Haiti * Cuban province of Las Tunas A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete in Jamaica and rushed to completion in Cuba. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos islands later today or tonight. Interests in Bermuda should also monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.2 West. Melissa is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed on Tuesday. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move over Jamaica tonight and early Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 165 mph (270 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica on Tuesday. However, Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely powerful major hurricane, and will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). The minimum central pressure estimated from the latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 908 mb (26.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in Jamaica, and catastrophic and life-threatening hurricane-force wind conditions are expected to begin tonight and continue into early Tuesday. Within the eyewall, total structural failure is likely, especially in higher elevation areas where wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains could be up to 30 percent stronger. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in eastern Cuba on Tuesday, with hurricane conditions expected to begin in the hurricane warning area by Tuesday evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in Haiti late Tuesday and Wednesday. Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are possible in the southeastern and central Bahamas, as well as the Turks and Caicos Islands, on Wednesday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of Jamaica and additional rainfall of 8 to 16 inches for southern Hispaniola through Wednesday, with storm total local maxima of 40 inches possible. Catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely. For eastern Cuba, storm total rainfall of 15 to 20 inches, with local higher amounts, is expected by Monday into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding with numerous landslides. Over the Southeast Bahamas, total rainfall of 4 to 8 inches is expected Tuesday into Wednesday resulting in areas of flash flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is likely along the south coast of Jamaica tonight and on Tuesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. Peak storm surge heights could reach 7 to 11 feet above normal tide levels, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Storm surge of 4 to 6 ft above normally dry ground is possible in the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days, and the Bahamas, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Bermuda later this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Atlantic
