Issued at 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025
000 WTNT33 KNHC 260533 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Hurricane Melissa Intermediate Advisory Number 19A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 200 AM EDT Sun Oct 26 2025 ...MELISSA RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING... ...LIFE-THREATENING AND CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA THROUGH MIDWEEK... SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 76.1W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM WSW OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Jamaica A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince * Cuban provinces of Granma, Santiago de Cuba, Guantanamo, and Holguin. A Tropical Storm Warning in effect for... * Southwestern peninsula of Haiti from the border with the Dominican Republic to Port-Au-Prince A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be complete. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Cuba, the southeastern and central Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should monitor the progress of Melissa. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 76.1 West. Melissa is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow westward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn to the north and northeast on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica through Tuesday, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of the week. Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Melissa is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued rapid intensification is forecast during the next day or so, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure based on dropsonde data is 958 mb (28.29 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Melissa can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely beginning in Jamaica, with hurricane conditions expected by Monday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Haiti today. The potential for hurricane conditions in the watch area in Haiti have diminished for today, but there is still a possibility of hurricane conditions occurring there on Tuesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area in eastern Cuba on Tuesday into Wednesday. RAINFALL: Melissa is expected to bring total rainfall of 15 to 30 inches to portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica into Wednesday, with local maxima of 40 inches possible. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm totals. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are probable across portions of southern Hispaniola and Jamaica. For eastern Cuba, total rainfall of 6 to 12 inches, with local amounts to 18 inches, are expected into Wednesday resulting in life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Additional heavy rainfall is likely beyond Wednesday; uncertainty at that time range precludes exact storm totals. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Life-threatening storm surge is becoming more likely along the south coast of Jamaica during the next few days. Peak storm surge heights could reach 9 to 13 feet above ground level, near and to the east of where the center of Melissa makes landfall. This storm surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. There is a potential for significant storm surge along the southeast coast of Cuba late Tuesday or Wednesday. SURF: Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg/Hagen
NHC Atlantic
