Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 302042 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM AST Thu Oct 30 2025 A recent AMSR2 microwave pass over Melissa indicates that the center is tilted toward the northeast with height. The 89 GHz (mid-upper level) image shows a center at least 30 n mi northeast of where the 37 GHz (low-level) image has the center. This indicates that strong west-southwesterly shear has begun. Dropsonde and flight-level wind data from a NOAA reconnaissance flight show that the surface winds are much weaker than the winds aloft, and that the standard 90 percent reduction factor should not be used. Winds on the east side of Melissa are quite strong between 1,500 ft and 10,000 ft, but drop off significantly near the surface. The strongest flight-level wind was 113 kt. ASCAT showed vectors up to 70 kt around 15Z, which is consistent with lower-level layer-averaged data from the dropsondes. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates are T5.0/90 kt from both TAFB and SAB. The initial intensity will be held at 90 kt, which is equivalent to 80 percent of the maximum flight-level wind from the recent flight, but this may be a bit generous. Melissa is accelerating northeastward, or 35 degrees at 27 kt. Melissa is likely to speed up to a forward speed of 35 kt or more over the next 12 hours, and the fast motion should continue into Saturday as Melissa moves within the flow between a mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The guidance is in excellent agreement for the first 48 of the forecast, with the center expected to pass northwest of Bermuda tonight, where a hurricane warning is in effect. After Melissa becomes extratropical in about 30 hours, the center should pass very near the southeastern tip of the Avalon Peninsula of Newfoundland, where some impacts from wind, rain and surf are possible. Little to no change has been made to the official track forecast through 48 hours, which lies near the various consensus aids. Melissa is now moving into progressively stronger west-southwesterly wind shear and will reach sea-surface temperatures below 26C this evening. Therefore, Melissa should begin a weakening trend by early Friday. GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery suggests that Melissa should become post-tropical around Friday evening, prior to making its closest approach to Newfoundland. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and lies within the upper portion of the intensity guidance suite. The NHC intensity and radii forecasts after Melissa becomes post-tropical are largely based on the global model solutions. Key Messages: 1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning early this evening. Preparations should have been completed. 2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 30.2N 69.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 31/1800Z 40.4N 59.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 46.3N 52.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1800Z 51.3N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/0600Z 53.8N 40.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1800Z 55.1N 33.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1800Z 57.6N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1800Z 61.7N 15.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Hagen
NHC Atlantic
