Issued at 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 301454 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance recently investigated Melissa and found winds in the southeast quadrant that supported a 90-kt intensity. The central pressure is about 965 mb, based on dropsonde data. The wind radii have changed only slightly during the past 12 hours. The satellite presentation remains fairly impressive, with an eye feature emerging on GOES 19 imagery over the past couple of hours. Some slight additional strengthening is possible for another few hours while Melissa remains over marginally warm sea-surface temperatures, but the water temperatures will rapidly decrease tonight while wind shear rapidly increases. As a result, Melissa is expected to quickly lose tropical characteristics once it passes Bermuda, and it is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by Friday night. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains towards the higher end of the guidance envelope, and more closely follows the global models during the extratropical phase. Melissa is accelerating toward the north-northeast, now moving 30 degrees at 21 kt. A faster motion is expected during the next couple of days as Melissa moves within the flow between a mid-level trough over the eastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The guidance is in excellent agreement through the next 48 hours, until after the system makes its closest approach to Atlantic Canada. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Bermuda, and Melissa is likely to pass to the west and northwest of the island tonight. Melissa should then pass near the southeastern tip of Newfoundland as a strong extratropical cyclone on Friday night before turning more towards the east-northeast, and moving across the North Atlantic this weekend. No significant changes were made to the NHC track forecast through 48 hours, but the track was shifted a bit to the northeast of the previous forecast from day 3 onward. Key Messages: 1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning late this afternoon. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 27.8N 71.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 31.6N 68.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 37.5N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 43.8N 55.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 01/1200Z 49.5N 48.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 02/0000Z 53.3N 43.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/1200Z 54.7N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/1200Z 56.6N 26.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/1200Z 61.0N 19.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Hagen
NHC Atlantic
