Issued at 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 300852 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 AM EDT Thu Oct 30 2025 Melissa appears slightly better organized this morning. Overnight GMI passive microwave images showed a closed mid-level eyewall, and there have been hints of a ragged eye feature in recent conventional satellite images with deep convection surrounding the center. Based on these developments, the initial intensity is raised to 90 kt for this advisory, which is supported by a 5.0/90 kt Dvorak classification from SAB. A comparison of the 89 and 37 GHz GMI images indicates the vortex is tilted toward the northeast with height, likely the result of southwesterly shear over the hurricane. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane this morning. Melissa is moving quickly northeastward (030/18 kt) away from the Bahamas. An even faster northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days as Melissa moves within the flow between a mid-level trough over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. The tightly clustered track guidance shows the center of Melissa passing to the northwest of Bermuda tonight, and a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the island. Then, Melissa should pass near the southeastern tip of Newfoundland as a strong extratropical cyclone on Friday night before moving across the North Atlantic this weekend. No notable changes were made to the NHC track forecast with this update. Slight additional strengthening is possible today while Melissa remains over warm waters in a diffluent upper-level environment. However, the shear is forecast to become prohibitively strong later tonight and Friday, and Melissa will reach much cooler waters during the next 24-48 h. As a result, Melissa is expected to quickly lose tropical characteristics once it passes Bermuda, and it is forecast to become a strong post-tropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by Friday night or early Saturday. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance envelope, and more closely follows the global models during the extratropical phase later in the forecast period. Key Messages: 1. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight, with tropical storm conditions beginning later today. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 2. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines and flooding. Any flooding across the Bahamas is expected to subside today. Flooding across Cuba, Jamaica, and Hispaniola could persist for another few days. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 25.8N 73.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 29.0N 70.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 40.6N 59.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 47.0N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 01/1800Z 51.6N 45.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 02/0600Z 53.9N 40.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 03/0600Z 55.5N 29.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 04/0600Z 58.5N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Atlantic
