Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 292047 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Melissa showing some some signs of convective recovery after weakening a little more from the land interaction with Cuba. After looking quite ragged after emerging off Cuba, convection is redeveloping on its upshear flank, and showing some signs of wrapping around the center again. Aircraft fixes from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission also show that the hurricane is beginning to accelerate to the northeast. Peak 700 mb flight level winds were 87 kt both to the east and northeast of the center, and the minimum central pressure was unchanged from this morning, at around 974 mb. The mission also indicated a much larger eyewall with an eye diameter of 40 n mi. Using a standard 0.9 reduction from the 700 mb wind yields a maximum sustained wind of 80 kt this advisory, which is also in between the TAFB and SAB subjective Dvorak intensity estimates. Aircraft and scatterometer data were used to expand some of the wind radii associated with Melissa this afternoon. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is scheduled for this evening. The hurricane continues to gradually accelerate this afternoon, with the motion currently estimated at 035/14 kt. Not much has changed with the track reasoning this afternoon, as Melissa is beginning to be captured in the flow between an amplified trough swinging into the southeastern United States and a mid-level ridge centered to the east of the tropical cyclone. This motion will bring Melissa across the southeastern and central Bahamas though the evening. The track models continue to remain clustered on the center of Melissa passing just northwest of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night, though the enlarging wind radii will likely cause hurricane conditions to be experienced near or on the island. The track guidance this cycle remains in fairly good agreement, and only subtle changes to the track forecast were made this cycle, sticking close to a blend of the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) and Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). It is also worth noting that the forecast track does also take Melissa close to the southeastern tip of Newfoundland, but as an post-tropical extratropical cyclone. While Melissa has weakened substantially in the past 24 h due to land interaction from the high terrain of Jamaica and Cuba, the global and hurricane-regional models continue to suggest it has a short-term window to re-intensify some while it remains over sufficently warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. While vertical wind shear is starting to increase over the hurricane, it is in the same direction as the current accelerating motion, and the current satellite structure suggests that convection is not having any issues wrapping around the circulation. In addition, the accelerating forward motion might have the net effect of increasing the maximum winds speeds on the southeastern flank of Melissa. Finally, the hurricane finds itself positioned in the right entrance region of a jet streak located over the northeastern United States, which may aid in upper-level divergence over the system before the shear becomes prohibitively strong. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast does show some modest intensification over the next 24 h, and it is worth nothing this forecast is a little lower than some of the hurricane-regional models (HAFS-B/HWRF/HMON) that suggest it could re-intensify into a major hurricane. Once the hurricane approaches the north wall of the gulf stream in 48 h, extratropical transition will likely be well underway, with most models suggesting it completing this process between 48 to 60 h. The NHC intensity forecast is a little on the high side of the overall guidance envelope. Key Messages: 1. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas through this evening. Remain sheltered until local officials deem it safe to venture out. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands through this evening. 2. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are expected in Bermuda beginning late Thursday and continuing through Thursday night. 3. Post-storm safety: Follow advice of local officials as you may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 22.9N 74.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 25.1N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 30/1800Z 29.1N 70.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/0600Z 34.4N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/1800Z 40.7N 58.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 01/0600Z 46.6N 52.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1800Z 52.0N 45.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1800Z 56.0N 32.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1800Z 57.0N 27.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Atlantic
