Issued at 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 291458 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025 Melissa is moving back offshore, now in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean. The NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft flew around Cuba and more recently was able to make a fix of Melissa just offshore. This matches the latest view from the GOES-19 mesoscale sector and radar out of Camaguey, Cuba. However, the smaller core that Melissa had stubbornly maintained over the past few days has been destroyed by the higher terrain of Cuba, and a larger core structure is developing. This has led to a significant expansion of the 50-kt wind radii on the eastern side of the hurricane. Land interaction also appears to have lead to additional weakening of the the maximum sustained winds that are now estimated to be around 85 kt, with the pressure up to 974 mb based on the first NOAA-P3 aircraft fix. This may still be a little generous given the aircraft wind data thus far. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission will also be sampling Melissa later today. The hurricane is continuing to slowly accelerate, now estimated to be moving to the northeast at 030/12 kt. Melissa is expected to continue accelerating northeastward during the next several days as the hurricane is picked up by a very large an amplified upper-level trough currently digging into the southeastern United States. This motion will bring the core of the hurricane over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas over the next several hours. After today, the track models remain tightly clustered on the center of Melissa passing just to the northwest of Bermuda late Thursday and Thursday night. The center of the hurricane is a little bit further to the west emerging off Cuba, and the overall track guidance has nudged a little bit further west this cycle, and the NHC track forecast was also nudged in that direction, continuing to blend the reliable consensus aids with the Google DeepMind ensemble mean (GDMI). Now that Melissa is back offshore, it has a short-term opportunity for the hurricane to re-intensify a little as long as the larger core that has developed is able to reorganize. Shear does start to increase over the next 24-36 h, but the shear vector is also in the same direction as the forward motion of the storm, which could still allow some core reorganization of the convection while the hurricane remains over warm 27-28 C sea-surface temperatures. Thus, the short-term NHC forecast shows a little bit of intensification over the next 12-24 h before weakening begins by 36 h. Extratropical transition is expected to be well underway at or just after Melissa passes by Bermuda, with the global model fields and model-simulated satellite imagery show Melissa quickly losing tropical characteristics and becoming an extratropical cyclone by 60 h. However, Melissa will still likely be a formidable extratropical cyclone as it moves up into the Canadian Maritimes by this weekend into early next week. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HAFS model guidance and HFIP Corrected Consensus approach (HCCA). Key Messages: 1. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding and landslides, and damaging winds are ongoing through this afternoon. Remain in a safe shelter. 2. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas today. Find a safe shelter and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands today. 3. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across portions of Haiti and the Dominican Republic through today. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected through this afternoon. 4. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are expected in Bermuda beginning late Thursday and continuing through Thursday night. 5. Post-storm safety in impacted areas: Follow advice of local officials as you may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 21.4N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 23.4N 74.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 26.9N 71.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 31.6N 67.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 31/1200Z 37.2N 61.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 01/0000Z 43.3N 55.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 01/1200Z 49.0N 48.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 02/1200Z 55.0N 36.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 03/1200Z 58.8N 18.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Atlantic
