Hurricane Melissa Forecast Discussion Number 32

October 29, 2025
radmin

Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025

000
WTNT43 KNHC 290852
TCDAT3
 
Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number  32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132025
500 AM EDT Wed Oct 29 2025
 
Radar data and satellite images indicate that Melissa made landfall
in the province of Santiago de Cuba to the east of Chivirico around
0710 UTC this morning. The estimated landfall intensity of 105 kt
was based on a blend of the earlier Air Force Hurricane Hunter wind
and pressure data with the available satellite intensity estimates.
The hurricane is now centered inland over eastern Cuba, where
damaging winds and heavy rainfall continue across the region. Outer
rainbands are also noted across Haiti and portions of the Bahamas
and Turks and Caicos. Land interaction with the rugged terrain of
eastern Cuba has likely caused some weakening over the past couple
of hours, so the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt.
 
The hurricane is moving to the northeast at 10 kt within the flow 
between an upper trough over the southeastern U.S. and a subtropical 
ridge over the central Atlantic. After crossing eastern Cuba this 
morning, Melissa is expected to continue accelerating northeastward 
during the next several days. This motion will bring the core of the 
hurricane over portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas 
later today. Then, the track models are tightly clustered on the 
center of Melissa passing to the west of Bermuda late Thursday and 
Thursday night. With good overall model agreement, no notable 
changes were made to this portion of the NHC track forecast. There 
was a leftward shift in much of the guidance at 96-120 h, and the 
official track forecast was adjusted to reflect these trends.
 
Additional weakening is expected while the hurricane moves across
eastern Cuba this morning. Melissa is expected to remain a strong
hurricane while it crosses portions of the Bahamas later today. Over
the next few days, increasing vertical wind shear, cooler waters,
and a drier surrounding mid-level environment will likely induce
further weakening. However, Melissa is forecast to still be a
hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Bermuda later this
week. Then, the global model fields and model-simulated satellite
imagery show Melissa quickly losing tropical characteristics and
becoming an extratropical cyclone by Friday night or early Saturday.
No major changes were made to the updated NHC intensity prediction,
which remains near the middle of the intensity guidance envelope.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Jamaica: You may need to remain sheltered after the storm due to
downed power lines and flooded areas. Ensure generators are
properly ventilated and placed outside at least 20 feet away from
dwellings and garages to avoid carbon monoxide poisoning. During
clean up, be careful when using chainsaws and power tools. Drink
plenty of water to avoid heat exhaustion.
 
2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and
landslides are expected across portions of Haiti and the Dominican
Republic through today. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of
communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected
through this morning.
 
3. Eastern Cuba: Life-threatening storm surge, flash flooding and
landslides, and damaging hurricane winds are ongoing this morning.
Remain in a safe shelter.
 
4. Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions,
life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across
portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas today. Find a safe
shelter and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm
conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in
the Turks and Caicos Islands today.
 
5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in
Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 20.3N  76.1W  100 KT 115 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 21.9N  75.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 25.0N  73.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 29.0N  69.9W   85 KT 100 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 34.2N  64.8W   80 KT  90 MPH
 60H  31/1800Z 40.3N  58.1W   70 KT  80 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 46.3N  51.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  02/0600Z 53.5N  36.0W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  03/0600Z 58.0N  20.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
Forecaster Reinhart

NHC Atlantic

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Federal Shutdown Forces Local Relief Plan; Lawmakers Assess Broader Economic Strain

As the federal shutdown stretched into its fourth week, lawmakers convened Wednesday to confront what Senate President Milton E. Potter called a moment that demands “urgency, clarity, and compassion” — because, he said, for thousands of Virgin Islands families, the suspension of federal nutrition aid is not a political inconvenience, but a crisis at the kitchen table.
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“This is not only a social safety issue,” Rhymer said. “It is an economic stability issue.”He added that the estimated loss of SNAP spending alone — roughly $5 to $6 million per month — has a cascading effect on the private sector, with an estimated 16 local jobs at risk as household spending constricts.
Senators pressed both the administration and one another on what must happen next. Sen. Carla Joseph zeroed in on workforce exposure across agencies, noting that the effects would not land evenly. Sen. Dwayne DeGraff raised concerns about mortgage defaults and consumer credit stress if workers continue reporting without pay. Sen. Franklin Johnson questioned whether federal employees would eventually receive back pay; OMB responded that, legally, yes — but noted the uncertainty in current federal negotiations.
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Rhymer and Finance Commissioner Kevin McCurdy told lawmakers that if the shutdown extends past Dec. 1, the territory may need to reallocate its $100 million line of credit — $50 million for operating continuity and $50 million for reserves — to maintain payroll, health services, and basic government operations. Discussion also touched on how quickly legislators can move and what longer-term preparations must be made if the federal shutdown drags on.
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