Issued at 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 282052 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 The eye of Melissa made landfall in western Jamaica near 17Z with maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 kt and a central pressure near 892 mb. Since that time, the hurricane has been weakening over the mountains of western Jamaica with the eye disappearing and some warming of the convective cloud tops. Based on these changes, the initial intensity has been reduced to a highly uncertain 125 kt. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate Melissa this evening to provide better information on how much it has weakened. It should be noted that while Melissa's landfall intensity is among the strongest ever recorded in the Atlantic basin, it will take extensive post-analysis to determine exactly where it ranks among landfalling Atlantic hurricanes. The initial motion is now 025/7. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected this evening, and this should bring the center near or over southeastern Cuba late tonight or early Wednesday. After that, an even faster motion toward the northeast should bring the center through the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda Thursday or Thursday night. After passing Bermuda, the cyclone should continue quickly northeastward into the north Atlantic. The track guidance envelope has shifted a little to the left (north and west) through 72 h since the last advisory, and the new forecast track during this time is also shifted a little to the north and west. While the center of Melissa is now emerging over water, it will probably not re-intensify significantly before landfall in Cuba due to the limited amount of time before landfall and an upper-level wind environment that is becoming less favorable. Based on this, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength before Melissa reaches Cuba. After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter increasing southwesterly vertical shear that should cause gradual weakening, although the cyclone should still be at hurricane strength when it passes near Bermuda. Based on global model guidance, Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Remain in a safe shelter tonight. Damaging winds will continue over portions of Jamaica this evening. Catastrophic flash flooding, and landslides, are expected across the island tonight with widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication outages, and isolated communities. 2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic during the next day or so. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday. 3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are likely to begin later today. Seek safe shelter. 4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. 5. Bermuda: Hurricane conditions and heavy rainfall are possible in Bermuda beginning Thursday or Thursday night where a Hurricane Watch is now in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 18.5N 77.7W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 19.9N 76.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 22.2N 75.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 25.0N 73.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 28.9N 70.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 31/0600Z 33.8N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 31/1800Z 39.0N 58.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 01/1800Z 48.4N 42.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1800Z 54.8N 25.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Atlantic
