Issued at 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 281452 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft show that Melissa has strengthened since the last advisory. The central pressure inside the 15 n mi wide eye has fallen to near 892 mb, and the NOAA aircraft reported flight-level winds of 172 kt at 700 mb. Based on these data, the the initial intensity has been increased to 160 kt. The initial motion is now 025/8. This general motion should continue with some increase in forward speed, with the center making landfall in Jamaica in a couple of hours and reaching eastern Cuba late tonight or early Wednesday. After that, a faster motion toward the northeast should bring the center through the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday and near Bermuda Thursday or Thursday night. After passing Bermuda the cyclone should continue quickly northeastward into the north Atlantic. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 36 h and a little north of the previous track after that time. Melissa should weaken over Jamaica as the inner core gets disrupted by the mountainous terrain. However, the cyclone should maintain major hurricane status until the center reaches eastern Cuba. After leaving Cuba, Melissa should encounter increasing southwesterly vertical shear that should cause steady weakening, although the cyclone should still be at hurricane strength when it passes near Bermuda. Based on global model guidance, Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: THIS IS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS AND LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION! TAKE COVER NOW! Catastrophic winds with total structural failure are liklely near the path of Melissa’s center. Catstrophic flash flooding, landslides, and destructive winds are expected across the remainder of the island causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected through the day. 2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday. 3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are likely to begin later today. Complete all preparations now. 4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 17.9N 77.9W 160 KT 185 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 19.0N 77.1W 130 KT 150 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 21.0N 75.7W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/0000Z 23.4N 74.1W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 30/1200Z 26.6N 71.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 31/0000Z 30.8N 67.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 31/1200Z 35.9N 61.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 01/1200Z 45.9N 47.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/1200Z 52.8N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Atlantic
