Issued at 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 280857 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 AM EDT Tue Oct 28 2025 Melissa has a circular, 10-n-mi-wide eye surrounded by a symmetric ring of very intense convection with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. Radar data from Jamaica suggests that a secondary outer eyewall may have formed, which could signal that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway. The last couple of overnight center fixes by the Air Force Hurricane Hunters revealed 700-mb height falls within the eye, and dropsonde data indicated the central pressure had fallen to around 901 mb. A standard reduction of the peak 700-mb flight-level winds from that mission (165 kt) supports an initial intensity of 150 kt. Conditions are deteriorating across Jamaica, where heavy rainfall and tropical storm conditions have spread across the island. NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft are scheduled to investigate the hurricane again this morning. Melissa is moving slowly north-northeastward (025/4 kt). Over the next several days, the hurricane is expected to accelerate to the northeast within the flow ahead of an amplifying trough over the southeastern U.S. This steering flow will bring the core of Melissa across Jamaica today, over eastern Cuba early Wednesday, and across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday. Then, the hurricane is forecast to pass near Bermuda Thursday night or early Friday. Overall, the near-term NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one. At 72-120 h, the official forecast was adjusted to the left of the previous prediction based on the latest multi-model consensus aids and Google DeepMind ensemble guidance. Near-term intensity fluctuations are possible this morning and will likely be driven by internal dynamic processes like eyewall replacement cycles. Regardless, Melissa will reach Jamaica as an extremely dangerous major hurricane within the next 12 h. While land interaction with Jamaica and eastern Cuba is expected to cause some weakening, Melissa is still forecast to pass over portions of the Bahamas as a strong hurricane on Wednesday. Increasing westerly shear is likely to impact Melissa later this week while the hurricane accelerates toward higher latitudes. As a result, the hurricane is forecast to have a broader and asymmetric wind field when it passes near Bermuda later this week. Some minor upward adjustments were made to the NHC intensity forecast during the middle portion of the period in agreement with the latest HCCA and GDMI aids. Melissa is forecast to become a strong extratropical cyclone over the North Atlantic by 96 h. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Remain sheltered! Catastrophic flash flooding, landslides, and destructive winds will continue through today, causing widespread infrastructure damage, power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Total structural failure is possible near the path of Melissa’s center. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are expected through the day. Failure to act may result in serious injury or loss of life. 2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Wednesday. 3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall, flash flooding and landslides are expected soon. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are likely to begin later today. Complete all preparations now. 4. Southeastern and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the southeastern and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Complete preparations by tonight and follow local official guidance. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and significant storm surge are expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 17.2N 78.3W 150 KT 175 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 18.2N 77.7W 145 KT 165 MPH...INLAND 24H 29/0600Z 19.9N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 36H 29/1800Z 21.9N 75.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 24.6N 73.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 30/1800Z 28.1N 70.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 31/0600Z 32.4N 65.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 01/0600Z 43.0N 52.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 02/0600Z 51.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Reinhart
NHC Atlantic
