Issued at 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025
000 WTNT43 KNHC 272042 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 500 PM EDT Mon Oct 27 2025 A few hours ago, data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed that the central pressure in Melissa had fallen to near 906 mb. The aircraft measured maximum 700-mb flight-level winds of 161 kt, which supports surface winds of near 145 kt. In addition, low-level winds measured by a dropwindsonde in the northeastern eyewall support surface winds of 155 kt. During the time since the aircraft departed the hurricane, there has been little change in organization and no obvious signs that Melissa has weakened. Thus, the initial intensity is set at 150 kt as a blend of the surface wind estimates mentioned above. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will again investigate Melissa during the next few hours. Melissa is starting its northward turn, and the initial motion is now northwestward or 315/3 kt. The mid-level ridge north of Melissa continues to weaken as a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moves eastward through the southeastern United States into the southwestern Atlantic. This should cause the hurricane to turn northward during the next 6-12 h or so at a continued slow forward speed. After 18 h or so, Melissa should turn northeastward with a slight increase in forward speed as the mid-latitude westerly flow becomes the dominant steering mechanism. A continued northeastward motion with a significant increase in forward speed is expected from 36 h through the end of the forecast period. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa will be near or over Jamaica late tonight and on Tuesday, cross eastern Cuba Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and then move near or over the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos on Wednesday. After that, the cyclone could reach the vicinity of Bermuda on Thursday night. The track guidance envelope has nudged a little to the west and north since the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is also a little to the west and north of the previous track. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 12-24 h due to the possibility that Melissa will start an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC). However, the previous aircraft data showed no evidence that an ERC had started, and it is possible that the upcoming aircraft may find Melissa is stronger than 150 kt. Regardless, even with an ERC it is unlikely that Melissa will weaken significantly before reaching Jamaica, and there is no practical difference in Melissa making landfall at category 4 or 5 intensity, since both categories produce catastrophic wind damage. After reaching Jamaica, a combination of land interaction and increasing southwesterly shear should cause weakening, although Melissa is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it reaches Cuba. Once over the Atlantic, stronger shear should cause more substantial weakening, and Melissa is expected to become extratropical by the end of the forecast period as it interacts with a large baroclinic low over the north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast has minor adjustments from the previous and again follows the trend of the intensity consensus. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Remain in your safe shelter and do not venture outside. Catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are expected through Tuesday. The eyewall’s destructive winds may cause total structural failure, particularly in higher elevations, leading to widespread infrastructural damage, prolonged power and communication outages, and isolated communities. Along the southern coast, life-threatening storm surge and damaging waves are anticipated through Tuesday. 2. Haiti and the Dominican Republic: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti and southern portions of the Dominican Republic through midweek. In Haiti, extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities is likely. Tropical storm conditions are expected late Tuesday and Wednesday. 3. Eastern Cuba: Heavy rainfall with life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and landslides is expected to begin tonight. Life-threatening storm surge and damaging winds are expected late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Preparations should be rushed to completion. 4. Southeast and Central Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos: Hurricane conditions, life-threatening storm surge, and heavy rainfall are expected across portions of the southeast and central Bahamas on Wednesday. Residents should follow advice given by local officials and be sure to have preparations complete by Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rains, and a significant storm surge is expected in the Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 16.7N 78.4W 150 KT 175 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 17.1N 78.3W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 18.2N 77.8W 125 KT 145 MPH...INLAND 36H 29/0600Z 19.8N 76.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 29/1800Z 21.8N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 30/0600Z 24.3N 72.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 30/1800Z 27.8N 69.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 31/1800Z 37.1N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 01/1800Z 44.7N 45.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Atlantic
