Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025
448 WTNT43 KNHC 260252 TCDAT3 Hurricane Melissa Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132025 1100 PM EDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Melissa is continuing rapid intensification. The Air Force aircraft reported flight-level winds of 115 kt in the north eyewall of the 17 nm wide eye at 700 mb, along with a central pressure of 967 mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 100 kt, making Melissa a category 3 major hurricane. The initial motion is now just south of due west or 265/3 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the north of Melissa should steer the hurricane generally westward at a slow forward speed during the next 36 h or so. After that time, a deep-layer mid-latitude trough moving through the southeastern United States will break the ridge, with Melissa expected to turn northward and then recurve into the mid-latitude southwesterly flow. The guidance is fairly well clustered during the first 72 h, with Melissa expected to pass over Jamaica in 48-60 h and then be near or over eastern Cuba around 72 h. Beyond 72 h, there is some speed and direction spread, but overall the guidance is in good agreement that Melissa should accelerate northeastward through portions of the Bahamas into the Atlantic. The new forecast track is a little to the south and west of the previous track through 60 h and similar to the previous track after that time. Rapid intensification is expected to continue for the next 24-36 h, and it is possible that during this time Melissa could intensify even faster than what is currently forecast. The regional hurricane models show the cyclone peaking before it reaches Jamaica, and based on this the new forecast keeps a 48-h peak intensity of 140 kt. Afterwards, some inner-core oscillations such as eyewall replacement cycles could lead to fluctuations in intensity before Melissa's first landfall in Jamaica. It must be noted that there is very little practical difference in the overall impacts of a Category 4 or 5 landfall, and Melissa is expected to be at least that intensity when it moves over Jamaica. Melissa should weaken as it interacts with Jamaica and Cuba, although it is still forecast to be a major hurricane when it nears Cuba. A faster weakening should occur after passing Cuba when the cyclone encounters strong shear over the southwestern Atlantic. This remains a very serious situation, in terms of catastrophic rainfall, wind, and storm surge hazards for Jamaica, and preparations should be rushed to completion in the area currently under a Hurricane Warning. Key Messages: 1. Jamaica: Seek shelter now. A multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall have begun and will cause catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides. Extensive infrastructural damage, long-duration power and communication outages, and isolation of communities are expected. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the southern coast early next week. 2. Haiti: Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and isolation of communities. Strong winds could last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula. 3. Dominican Republic: Heavy rainfall through the middle of next week could produce catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern portions of the country. 4. Eastern Cuba, Southeast Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos: Monitor Melissa closely. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life-threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for portions of eastern Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 16.4N 75.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 16.4N 76.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 27/0000Z 16.4N 77.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 27/1200Z 16.6N 77.5W 135 KT 155 MPH 48H 28/0000Z 17.2N 77.7W 140 KT 160 MPH 60H 28/1200Z 18.0N 77.2W 120 KT 140 MPH...INLAND JAMAICA 72H 29/0000Z 19.4N 76.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 30/0000Z 23.0N 72.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 31/0000Z 28.0N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
NHC Atlantic
