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7:44 pm, Oct 31, 2025
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Hurricane Melissa Forecast Advisory Number 40

Virgin Islands News

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025

000
WTNT23 KNHC 310909 CCA
TCMAT3
 
HURRICANE MELISSA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL132025
0900 UTC FRI OCT 31 2025

CORRECTED TIME OF NEXT ADVISORY ISSUANCE
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N  64.0W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  36 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE  70SE  40SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 140SE  80SW  30NW.
34 KT.......170NE 230SE 180SW  90NW.
4 M SEAS....120NE 360SE 450SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.9N  64.0W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.4N  65.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 40.4N  58.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  50SE  30SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 140SE  80SW  30NW.
34 KT...200NE 250SE 210SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 46.4N  51.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  30SE  20SW   0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 120SE  90SW  30NW.
34 KT...210NE 290SE 240SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 51.3N  45.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 100SE  80SW  20NW.
34 KT...210NE 320SE 260SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 54.1N  39.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  90SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT...170NE 330SE 260SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 55.6N  32.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  60SE  40SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 300SE 240SW 160NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 56.8N  26.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 270SE 210SW 160NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 60.0N  17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...  0NE 150SE 120SW   0NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.9N  64.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART

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New Survey Seeks to Capture Virgin Islanders’ Perspectives on Constitutional Convention

As the U.S. Virgin Islands moves forward with its Sixth Constitutional Convention, a new public opinion survey is underway to capture residents’ views on the territory’s political future.
The survey is being administered by the University of Michigan and will be fielded by Island Analytics, with support from students at the University of the Virgin Islands. It seeks to document how Virgin Islanders view the constitutional convention process, political status options, and broader issues of autonomy, equity, and community priorities.
The project was developed by Mara Cecilia Ostfeld, research associate professor of public policy at the University of Michigan’s Ford School of Public Policy, and Ignangeli Salinas-Muñiz, a political science doctoral candidate at the University of Michigan, in collaboration with Mayra Vélez Serrano of the University of Puerto Rico–Río Piedras.
“Your perspective is deeply valuable and it matters,” said Ostfeld. “We want to ensure that it is heard and represented and really reverberates across many institutions of power and politics.”
The effort is part of a broader comparative research project involving Puerto Rico and Guam, providing the opportunity to analyze the political attitudes of residents across U.S. territories.
“It’s about amplifying the voices of residents of the U.S. territories and ensuring that both public accounts and policy can center the priorities of territorial residents,” Ostfeld said.
The survey, which takes about 15 minutes to complete, includes both standardized and open-ended questions. Residents are asked about their awareness of the constitutional convention, political status preferences, likelihood to vote, and impressions of proposed changes.
“There are some open-ended questions about what would be important for you to see in a constitution,” said Salinas-Muñiz. “And some about what people want to see in their own spaces, even beyond this one political process.”
To ensure proportional representation, the survey uses what Richard Dorsey Jr., CEO of Island Analytics & Marketing, described as a “geographically stratified sampling approach.” Surveys are administered in person at University of the Virgin Islands campuses and key community locations, and by phone using local listings.
“We are not controlling for age or gender, but we are actively monitoring geographic balance throughout the data collection period,” Dorsey said.
Participation is voluntary and compensated with a $10 USPS money order, which is mailed to participants’ addresses after survey completion. While the survey is not publicly available online, residents who wish to participate can contact Island Analytics directly.
“If a resident hears about the project and would like to participate, they are welcome to contact me, directly at rdorsey@islandanalytics.com.” Dorsey said. “I’ll connect them with the appropriate data collector for their island if we’re still accepting responses.”
The three methods of survey administration — on-site at UVI, where student data collectors engage with participants on campus; community-based intercepts, where trained collectors connect with residents at key locations; and phone outreach, using local phone listings to reach participants directly — are designed to ensure broad, representative participation.
Organizers say the project’s success depends on trust and transparency, recognizing that some residents may hesitate to share their views due to privacy concerns.
Organizers stressed that privacy remains a top priority, all responses are anonymous and de-identified. “It’s all anonymous, all de-identified,” Ostfeld said. “We want to be super upfront and clear that this is just a tool to represent people’s opinions and preferences.”
Salinas-Muñiz believes that collaboration with local organizations will help build trust and overcome hesitation from residents. “Once you see they’re coming from Island Analytics and have a relationship to the University of the Virgin Islands, the public should take that as a signal,” said Salinas-Muñiz. “But it’s a very valid concern to be, at first, worried for your information and your safety.”
To ensure the project reflected local perspectives, organizers sought input from Sixth Constitutional Convention Delegate Imani Daniel.
 “There are outside entities that come in and extract data for their benefit from the Virgin Islands. And this is not one of those instances. This is a partnership that is genuinely interested. Our partners are from Puerto Rico. They understand the colonial context,” Daniel said. “This is, in my opinion, a good-faith effort to do something benevolent and in good partnership that will move the needle for what we are trying to do here.”
Once data collection concludes, anonymized results will be released to the public, policymakers, and researchers. A second round of the survey is planned following the next constitutional vote to track shifts in community perspectives over time. To capture perspectives the survey might miss, organizers are also planning a series of focus groups in early 2026.
Daniel said that while she welcomes the survey, she is especially excited about the focus groups, which she believes will foster the kind of exchange that can lead to deeper understanding. “I think dialogue is where you find discovery,” she said. “The survey and the focus groups, from a thesis standpoint, are about political imagination … especially the focus groups, they are a place to imagine and to dream and to think big and to bounce ideas off of each other. And I don’t know many places in the Virgin Islands that allow for that right now.”
Daniel added that, unlike previous constitutional conventions, which sent drafts to the governor before seeking public input, the current effort prioritizes community engagement and feedback earlier, a shift she believes will be the reason this sixth convention is successful in its mission.
Highlighting the broader significance of the work, Salinas-Muñiz emphasized the importance of documenting residents’ perspectives: “If people’s opinions are not recorded, then others might go to political bodies or other areas and speak on behalf of residents. In these processes, their opinions might be reflected differently than they actually are. This survey is really important because it draws insights from different members of the community … it is important that their own preferences and beliefs are recorded, and others aren’t speaking for them.”
Building on that point, Ostfeld said, “There are over 4 million Americans living in U.S. territories whose voices and preferences are not being represented in our federal government. It is our responsibility to ensure that we listen to those voices, amplify them, respect them, and respond to them.”

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