Hurricane Kirk Forecast Discussion Number 12

Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

000
WTNT42 KNHC 021452
TCDAT2

Hurricane Kirk Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Kirk continues to intensify this morning. On geostationary satellite
imagery convective bands continue to rotate around the eye seen
earlier in microwave imagery, although this feature hasn’t shown up
yet on visible imagery. The subjective Dvorak estimates were a
consensus T4.5/77 kt, and blending these estimates with somewhat
lower objective intensity estimates, the intensity has been raised
to 75 kt this advisory.

Kirk continues moving northwestward, or 305/10 kt. A gradual
slowdown at a similar heading is expected over the next day or two
as the hurricane remains steered by a subtropical ridge centered to
its northeast. At the end of the week, Kirk will find itself between
an increasingly eroded ridge to its east, and a digging upper-level
trough to its west, and it is likely Kirk will be steered between
these features, recurving northward, and then north-northeastward by
the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is
very similar to the prior one, especially over the next several
days, but is a little further northwest thereafter, blending the
prior track forecast to the consensus aids TCVA and HCCA, though in
general the track spread among the track guidance remains relatively
low.

Kirk appears poised to intensify quite a bit in the short-term now
that shear has decreased as the hurricane remains over very warm
ocean waters and plenty of deep-layer moisture. These favorable
conditions should promote notable strengthening, and the latest NHC
intensity forecast now shows Kirk becoming a major hurricane in 24
h, and peaking as a 115 kt Category 4 hurricane in 48 h. Thereafter,
southwesterly shear from the upper-level trough to its west could
begin to increase, leading to a gradual weakening trend. The latest
intensity forecast is a little higher than earlier, owing to
somewhat higher intensity guidance aids this cycle, but still
remains lower than some of the more bullish guidance (HAFS-B) but is
roughly in line with HCCA this cycle. Kirk is also expected to
continue growing in size with a larger than average radius of both
tropical storm and hurricane-force wind radii as it recurves into
the open Atlantic Ocean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 18.0N 43.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 19.0N 44.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 20.2N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 21.3N 47.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 22.7N 48.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/0000Z 24.4N 49.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 26.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 32.7N 49.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 39.6N 42.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin

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