Issued at 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025
022 WTNT42 KNHC 230234 TCDAT2 Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025 Gabrielle remains a formidable Category-4 hurricane with a well-defined 15 n-mi diameter eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops of near -70 deg C. The current intensity estimate is held at 120 kt, which is slightly higher than the latest subjective Dvorak estimates of 115 kt from both TAFB and SAB. This is also a blend of objective estimates from UW-CIMSS. The hurricane has turned toward the northeast and is now moving at around 040/11 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains about the same as in the previous advisory. Gabrielle should move around the northwestern side of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next day or so and then accelerate east-northeastward between the ridge and the mid-latitude westerlies through about 72 hours. A slight turn to the northeast ahead of a higher-latitude trough is expected in 3-4 days. This official track forecast is similar to the previous one. The latest Google DeepMind forecast is a little farther north of the model consensus. Simulated satellite imagery from the global models suggest extratropical transition will occur on Friday while the system is in the vicinity of the Azores. No significant change in intensity is anticipated into early Tuesday while Gabrielle remains in a conducive atmospheric and oceanic environment By late tomorrow and beyond, increasing vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air and cooler waters should cause weakening. However, an approaching upper-level trough could provide enhanced divergence aloft which could help Gabrielle maintain some of its intensity during the next few days. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and close to the model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 2. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind, rainfall, and wave impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 32.4N 61.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 33.5N 59.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 35.5N 50.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 35.9N 44.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/1200Z 37.0N 37.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 38.8N 31.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 43.0N 22.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 28/0000Z 44.0N 16.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch
NHC Atlantic
