Issued at 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025
028 WTNT42 KNHC 221455 TCDAT2 Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025 Visible satellite imagery shows that Gabrielle is an impressive, well-organized hurricane. The eye of Gabrielle has recently warmed, though the eyewall convection remains a bit fractured in the northeastern quadrant. Bermuda radar also has the suggestion of the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle, with an outer eyewall possibly forming. The initial intensity is held at 105 kt, at the top end of the various intensity estimates, and a NOAA Hurricane Hunter will be in the area during the next few hours for a closer look at the hurricane. Gabrielle is moving northward at about 9 kt. The track forecast seems straightforward with the subtropical ridge providing the steering for the next several days. The hurricane should turn northeastward tonight and then move faster to the east-northeast during the next few days due to Gabrielle encountering stronger mid-latitude flow. Model guidance is generally a bit faster than the last cycle, and the new forecast is adjusted in that direction. Extratropical transition is expected on Friday while the system is in the vicinity of the Azores. The hurricane is moving over very warm waters within moderate shear today, so further intensification is expected. A combination of cooler waters and increasing shear should cause Gabrielle to start to weaken tomorrow. While SSTs drop off more significantly by midweek, an upper-level trough could provide a favorable trough interaction, keeping the hurricane more organized than other environmental conditions might suggest. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, showing a gradual weakening during most of the forecast and lies close to the model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Gusty winds and showers will be possible across Bermuda today and tonight as Hurricane Gabrielle passes by to the east. 2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, and should continue during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. 3. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores on Thursday. Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential wind, rainfall, and wave impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 30.8N 62.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 31.9N 61.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 33.5N 59.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.5W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 35.6N 50.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 25/0000Z 36.1N 44.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 37.1N 37.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 41.6N 25.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 45.0N 16.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake
NHC Atlantic
