Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025
272 WTNT42 KNHC 220247 TCDAT2 Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 1100 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025 Satellite imagery shows that Gabrielle's core convection has started to wrap up and become a bit more impressive-looking. The latest subjective and objective intensity estimates still range from about 55-68 kt, so the intensity is held at 65 kt for this advisory. Some minor adjustments were made to the wind radii based on a 22/0052 UTC ASCAT-C pass. The motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325 degrees at 10 kt. A turn to the north-northwest is expected overnight with a northward turn expected on Monday as Gabrielle rounds the western part of the subtropical ridge, and model guidance is in excellent agreement on the first 36 hours of the track forecast. There was a very small westward adjustment to the track forecast, but the latest ASCAT data, which shows that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward no farther than 60 n mi in the western semicircle, strongly indicate that the tropical-storm-force wind field will remain well to the east of Bermuda when Gabrielle makes its closest approach to the island late Monday. Thereafter, the cyclone will accelerate east-northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies. Mainly minor adjustments were made to the official track forecast, but it should be noted that beyond day 3, there is a large spread in the guidance, and confidence in the track forecast is low at that time range. Gabrielle is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours, especially given how warm the waters are. However, the amount of strengthening that will occur is uncertain due to moderate westerly wind shear that may affect Gabrielle. For now, the NHC forecast will continue to show rapid intensification over the next 24 hours given the recent improvement noted in the inner-core structure, mentioned above. The NHC forecast during this period is in agreement with a blend of the HAFS/HMON/HWRF/HCCA models. By late Tuesday, steady weakening is expected as wind shear increases, Gabrielle moves into a drier environment, and water temperatures begin to decrease along its path. The intensity forecast from Day 2 onward is a blend of the previous NHC forecast with the latest intensity consensus, which is slightly stronger than the previous NHC prediction. Beyond day 4, there is a very large spread among the models as to Gabrielle's track, intensity, and whether or not it will be starting to attain extratropical characteristics. Therefore, it is too early to predict what, if any, impacts Gabrielle could have on the Azores. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Hurricane Gabrielle is expected to pass east of Bermuda on Monday. While the chances of impacts are still decreasing, interests on Bermuda should continue to monitor forecast updates since some wind and rainfall impacts are still possible. 2. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda during the next few days. These swells are now reaching the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, and should continue through early this week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0300Z 29.2N 62.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/1200Z 30.4N 62.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 24H 23/0000Z 32.0N 61.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 23/1200Z 33.5N 59.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 24/0000Z 34.7N 56.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/1200Z 35.5N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0000Z 36.2N 45.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0000Z 39.0N 33.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 27/0000Z 42.7N 23.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen
NHC Atlantic
